Wednesday, 31 October 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $517,590
Cash holding = $118,539
Realised profit = $136,129 = 27.23%
Unrealised Profit = $32,000 = 6.4%

Tuesday, 30 October 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $517,590
Cash holding = $118,539
Realised profit = $136,129 = 27.23%
Unrealised Profit = $28,340 = 5.67%

Comments on Warrants

Roden said...
Hi, a friend just recommend your blog to me, I think you are good and would like to learn something from you, especially you are qualify accountant

Dun know much about warrant, as I check Jiutian premium is 65%, isn't too high? Exercise price $0.80. I am novice in stock and warrant market. Can you teach me how to interprete the gearing? how do we choose warrant? base on gearing or premium. If this need to take you a lot of time to explain, kindly tell me any website I could learn about it. Thanks!

Hi Roden,
Thank you for following my blog and ur compliments but I am just doing what many of u can also do. The difference is u need to spend plenty of time "doing ur homework".

I tin u hv done well by pointing out the high premium that Jiutian warrant is commanding at the moment. The text books can teach u all u need to know about Black Scholes and option pricing model. In practice, it is quite different.

Technically speaking, high premium means the market prices the warrant to reflect potential capital gain from converting the warrants. In this case, the market feels that the mother share price will hit higher than S$0.80 in 3 years time and so investors are willing to pay for the premium. The same can be said about PE ratios.

Just like buying a stock, there is no one right formula as to how to choose a warrant. It depends on the underlying stock itself and the time to expiry plus conversion ratios. For me, I bought the warrants with the longest expiry period possible and also with reasonable absolute value. I will never buy warrants eg Cosco at more than $1 as the risk exposure is deemed too much for me.

In Jiutian's case, it is safer because you are buying the warrants directly from the Company and not thru some third party bankers. The chances of it being manipulated is lower.

You may want to read my comments in CNA forum on the expected warrant price before the warrant started trading.

Lastly, remember that all warrants carry high risks. It should only be used for the purpose of leveraging on your investment cost and not for punting. The put warrants provide a hedging mechanism for people to cap their exposure to downside risk. If use wisely, it can supplement your investment portfolio.

Monday, 29 October 2007

My portfolio transactions

Today transactions:

Sold:
FSL Trust @ $0.865, cost US$0.86 Breakeven + dividend of US$0.0223
ChinaSports @ $2, cost $1.35 Realised Profit 48%
Fibrechem @ $1.70, cost $1.53 Realised profit 11%
Foreland @ $0.55, cost $0.50 Realised Profit 10%
Hongwei @ $0.365, cost $0.44 Realised Loss 20%

Bought:
ChinaHongxing @ $1.38
ChinaXLX @ $1.26

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $517,590
Cash holding = $118,539
Realised profit = $136,129 = 27.23%
Unrealised Profit = $47,230 = 9.45%

Sunday, 28 October 2007

Virtual Fund Transactions

Transactions:

Buy:
Federal 50,000 @ $0.78 = $39,000
Pine 100,000 @ $0.515 = $51,500
ChinaXLXmBLeCW80303 500,000 @ $0.095 = $47,500
YangzijiangBNPeCW80115 200,000 @ $0.125 = $25,000
JiutianCW101015 150,000 @ $0.205 = $30,750
ChinaHongxin 50,000 @ $1.34 = $67,000

Total investment bought = $260,750

Sum invested = $517,590
Cash holding = $118,539

Friday, 26 October 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $256,840
Cash holding = $379,289
Realised profit = $136,129 = 27.23%
Unrealised Profit = $32,220 = 6.44%
I just came back from holiday. Not bad, the unrealised profit of Virtual Fund has increased by some $20k over the past week. Many S shares have dropped to close to pre-cheong level. Need to do some homework this weekend.
What a week it has been. Heard that Sembcorp Marine got into some deep ****. Some friends asked me whether this is the time to pick up the share on the cheap.
Some have got burnt by Uni-Asia when it plummeted to $1. I had warned you guys beforehand.
I did not get to reply to some of the queries as I did not have internet access during my break. Sometimes, it is very comfortable to live in a world without phones and computers.
I will try to pen my thoughts on these issues this weekend. Meanwhile, enjoy your weekend and spend quality time with your loved ones!

Thursday, 18 October 2007

Forum queries

Questions:
Mr kit, what u think of hiap seng? i think its time for it to have the next surge forward.. fundamental wise, im comfortable with it, yet tat credit agricole has been selling out.. notice they sold alot of other counters recently.. must be having some kinda trouble.. and wats ur view on anwell? back to recovery path hopefully.. yet i think dow look very bad.. !

Answers:
Hiap Seng's fundamental is ok. With the rising oil prices, its order book may continue to rise. The share placement and disposal of shares by key shareholders might have dampened its share price performance. Anwell has shown turnaround in its fortune. The strong demand for its DVD products from South America and China may drive its top and bottomline even higher. I reckon the stock is still cheap in absolute terms. As the general market seems fatigue, try to stay clear of the market for the time being until the next FOMC meeting at the end of the month.

First Ship Lease Trust To Distribute US2.23 cents for Q3

FIRST SHIP LEASE TRUST TO DISTRIBUTE US$11.15 MILLION TO UNITHOLDERS FOR 3Q FY07
• Distribution – US2.23¢ per unit (4.7% higher than IPO projection)
• Revenue – US$12.8 million (10.7% higher than IPO projection)

Singapore, 18 October 2007 – FSL Trust Management Pte. Ltd. ("FSLTM"), trustee-manager of First Ship Lease Trust ("FSL Trust"), today announced a total distribution of US$11.15 million to unitholders of FSL Trust for the third quarter ended 30 September 2007 ("3Q FY07"). This represents 100% of the amount available for distribution.

Based on 500 million outstanding units, the Distribution Per Unit ("DPU") is US2.23¢, 4.7% higher than the DPU of US2.13¢ projected at the time of FSL Trust’s Initial Public Offering ("IPO") in March 2007.

Jiutian Bonus Warrants to commence trading 19 Oct

Bonus Warrants will be listed and quoted on the Official List of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited with effect from 9.00 a.m. on 19 October 2007. Trading in the Warrants will also commence with effect from 9.00 a.m. on 19 October 2007.

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $256,840
Cash holding = $379,289
Realised profit = $136,129 = 27.23%
Unrealised Profit = $10,330 = 2.07%

Wednesday, 17 October 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund ~ on this day 1st A380 landed in Singapore

Sum invested = $256,840
Cash holding = $379,289
Realised profit = $136,129 = 27.23%
Unrealised Profit = $8,170 = 1.63%

Tuesday, 16 October 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $256,840
Cash holding = $379,289
Realised profit = $136,129 = 27.23%
Unrealised Profit = $8,510 = 1.7%

Monday, 15 October 2007

Uni-Asia VS FST

Today a friend called and asked me what I think of Uni-Asia. She said her husband is laughing to the bank as the share price rocketed from $0.60 to more than $2 in just 2 weeks.

I told her Uni-Asia does not meet my investment criteria. However attractive it might seem, I will not hold such counter unless there are fundamental changes to its business model and other new growth drivers come into play to support the hefty valuation at this moment.

I just checked the share price performance for today. It shot to new high of $2.75 and dropped to under $2 at closing. At the half year result briefing, the management highlighted that a significant part of the income arisen from the launch of Akebono Fund and one-time disposal of 3 vessels under its finance.

Some investors might interpret these exceptional items as recurring transactions and hence the high profitability can be sustained. That is unlikely to be the case as the Company has not made any other significant announcement so far.

My friend also asked why i did not dump everything into this stock as the Virtual Fund doesn't involve real money anyway. That way, I might be able to reap the returns in the shortest possible time.

I wish to reiterate that despite my stated target return of 50%, I still have more than 1 year to achieve that. I will not be pressurised to punt at this juncture. Moreover, I know that this Virtual Fund has been closely followed by some. Some friends even try to mirror what i buy and sell in using hard earned savings. To this group of followers, despite my disclaimer, I need to act responsibly so not to mislead them into speculating.

For my own portfolio, I bought some First Ship Lease Trust today at US$0.86. FST is in the business of leasing, similar to that of Uni-Asia. It doesn't however engage in any ship operating activities. Uni-Asia, on the other hand, derived half of their revenue from ships investment and management, which arguable can be more risky.

FST has committed to be paying quarterly dividends. The potential payouts could yield more than 10% return at current prices. Its share price has been heading south since listing, mainly due to the weakening USD. I believe FST provides good exposure to the shipping trust sector, which has been under performing so far.

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $256,840
Cash holding = $379,289
Realised profit = $136,129 = 27.23%
Unrealised Profit = $22,440 = 4.49%

Virtual Fund Transactions

The market seems fatigue after recent surge. I have decided to lock in the profits of the key holdings ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of this month.

Transactions for today:

Sold:
ChinaSports 100,000 @ $1.82, Realised Profit = $47,000
Jiutian 250,000 @ $0.66, Realised Profit = $27,500
(Still have 50,000 bonus warrants yet to be traded)
China Energy 20,000 @ $1.60, Realised Profit = $4,400

Sum invested = $256,840
Cash holding = $379,289
Realised profit = $136,129 = 27.23%

Friday, 12 October 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $556,940
Cash holding = $289
Realised profit = $57,229 = 11.44%
Unrealised Profit = $104,320 = 20.86%

Thursday, 11 October 2007

Raffles Education Corp ~ A phenomenon Stock!

Raffles Education Corp was listed on the SGX back in early 2002. If I remember correctly, it was trading at below $0.20 after IPO. After many rounds of splits and bonus issues, if you held on to 1,000 shares since IPO, today you would have got 6,500 shares.

If you had invested $1,000 back then, that $1,000 would have grown by 158.444 times. ie, you shares would be worth close to $160,000 at today's closing price of $2.87.

This was probably the best performing stock in the history of SGX until Ezion came about recently. It has made Mr Chew one of the richest men in Singapore.

Today, I would like to congratulate Raffles Education as it set to become the largest education provider in the Asia Pacific region. I will continue to hold the shares in my own portfolio. Who knows? It might be worth more than $1million in 10 years time.

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $556,940
Cash holding = $289
Realised profit = $57,229 = 11.44%
Unrealised Profit = $115,490 = 23.1%

Raffles Education set to be the Largest Education Provider in the Asia Pacific

- Makes strategic acquisition of Oriental University City in the PRC for RMB2 Billion

- Acquisition opens new growth opportunities and will add 5 colleges and a university to the Group’s PRC footprint

- Entrenches leadership position in the PRC education industry

Singapore, October 11th, 2007 - Main Board-listed Raffles Education Corporation Limited (“RafflesEducationCorp” or “the Group”) today announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Oriental University City Development Co., Ltd ("Oriental University City") in Langfang City, Hebei Province, the PRC. A strategic development that will entrench the Group’s leadership position in the PRC and set it as the largest education provider in the Asia Pacific.

Oriental University City is a company involved in the development, operation and management of educational assets in the PRC.

Under the terms of the agreement, the Group will acquire Oriental University City for a purchase consideration of approximately RMB 2 billion (S$392 million). The acquisition is payable in 4 equal instalments over a 4 year period and will be funded either through external financing arrangements, internal resources, or a combination of both, and the revenues generated by the Group’s operations in Oriental University City.

As part of the terms of the acquisition, Oriental University City will provide a pre-tax profit guarantee of RMB 100 million in 2008 and RMB 140 million in 2009. In addition, it will also transfer the ownership of Langfang Vocational Technical Institute and Langfang Health School to the Group. It will also apply to the PRC Ministry of Education to obtain the necessary approvals for the establishment of a private university, a private college and two Sino-foreign cooperative schools.

Wednesday, 10 October 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $556,940
Cash holding = $289
Realised profit = $57,229 = 11.44%
Unrealised Profit = $101,970 = 20.39%

Just back from biz trip. Unrealised gains have shrunk by some $30k mainly due to Jiutian ex bonus warrant. When the warrant starts trading, it should make up the lost ground.

Monday, 8 October 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $556,940
Cash holding = $289
Realised profit = $57,229 = 11.44%
Unrealised Profit = $130,140 = 26.03%

Friday, 5 October 2007

New STI Index 30 Stocks

SGX unveils revamped STI index of 30 stocks:
1. Capitaland
2. Capitamall Trust
3. City Developments
4. Cosco Corp
5. DBS Group Holdings
6. Fraser and Neave
7. Genting International
8. Hong Kong Land
9. Jardine Cycle & Carriage
10. Jardine Strategic
11. Keppel Corp
12. Keppel Land
13. NOL
14. Noble Group
15. Olam
16. OCBC
17. Sembcorp Industries
18. Sembcorp Marine
19. SIA engineering
20. SIA
21. SGX
22. SPH
23. ST Engineering
24. SingTel
25. StarHub
26. Thai Beverage
27. UOB
28. Wilmar
29. Yangzijiang
30. Yanlord

Performance of Virtual Fund on this day ~ Singaporeans have no confidence in future retirement planning

Sum invested = $556,940
Cash holding = $289
Realised profit = $57,229 = 11.44%
Unrealised Profit = $131,300 = 26.26%

Today the unrealised profit continued to rise mainly attributed to 8 cents or 4.4% recovery in the price of ChinaSports from $1.80 to $1.88. ChinaSports is the second largest holding in the Virtual Portfolio.

Thursday, 4 October 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund on this day Liverpool had a dismal CL performance

Sum invested = $556,940
Cash holding = $289
Realised profit = $57,229 = 11.44%
Unrealised Profit = $124,290 = 24.86%

I have been rather inactive for the past few sessions due to my demanding work commitments. Plenty of works to prepare for my business trip next week. Anyway, the current portfolio of stocks should be robust enough to ride out the current market volatility.

Wednesday, 3 October 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $556,940
Cash holding = $289
Realised profit = $57,229 = 11.44%
Unrealised Profit = $102,350 = 20.47%

Tuesday, 2 October 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $556,940
Cash holding = $289
Realised profit = $57,229 = 11.44%
Unrealised Profit = $136,890 = 27.38%

The fund came so close to crossing the final hurdle. I thought I was able to close the fund today. It looks like I have to wait a little longer.

The unrealised gain has declined by some $20k as I was not able to response swiftly to the market movements today. I was engaged in the management meeting most of the day. But it also adds realism to this exercise that the value of the fund can fall sometimes.
One last switch for the season finale:

Sold
50,000 Foreland @ $0.60, Realised profit = $5,000
100,000 CMZ @ $0.285, No Gain no loss

Bought
47,000 ChinaHongxing @ $1.25

Sum invested = $556,940
Cash holding = $289
Realised profit = $57,229 = 11.44%
Unrealised Profit = $157,730 = 31.5%

Monday, 1 October 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund

Sum invested = $551,690
Cash holding = $539
Realised profit = $52,229 = 10.44%
Unrealised Profit = $162,730 = 32.5%

Tomorrow I may achieve my $250,000 gain or 50% return target. I only short of $35,041!

Maggie Q and the charging Bull

Someone asks why i put Maggie Q photo in my blog. Well, i happened to come across this photo in her latest movie. She is pretty and wearing red (symbolising red chips). I thought by putting her next to the charging bull on her right. The bull sees red sure cannot tahan and would cheong like mad. My feng shui master told me so. haha...

Virtual Fund transactions

Transactions for today:

Sold
22,000 Tiong Woon @ $1.15, Realised profit = $2,200
20,000 Swiber @ $3.56, Realised Profit = $8,800

Bought
100,000 CMZ @ $0.285 = $28,500
48,000 ChinaMilk @ $1.43 = $68,640

Sum invested = $551,690
Cash holding = $539
Realised profit = $52,229 = 10.44%