Friday, 31 July 2009

End of July 2009 Share Portfolio Review

Transactions of My Portfolio

Sold today:
ChinaTaisan

Bought:
Hongguo International @$0.31


Latest Holding of My Portfolio ~ July 2009

Abterra
Biosensors
China Zaino
Hongguo
Oceanus
Qianhu
Sihuan
Asia Enterprise
Midas
Raffles Education

Tuesday, 21 July 2009

Transaction of My Portfolio

Sold all First Lease Shipping Trust @ $0.66


I have sold off the 2 shipping trusts over the past few days. FSL has announced that it will cut quarterly DPU to US$0.015. It is apparent that the trust has to start seeking for money somewhere to fund its acquisitions. Rickers may have a bigger credit issue on hand due to its aggressive expansion plan and the lack of funds.

As the share prices have doubled from my average costs, I just took some profits and look for other opportunities. The rising share prices coupled with shrinking DPUs make the investments less appalling.

Stay tuned for my next move....

Friday, 17 July 2009

Transaction of My Portfolio

Sold all Rickmers Maritime today @$0.535

Thursday, 9 July 2009

Thursday, 2 July 2009

Why I bought or sold certain shares?

Some followers of my blog have been asking me why I sold counter A or why I bought Company B. I thought maybe i should try to answer those questions here at once...

Some of you may have noticed that i have been rather quiet over the past 9 months or so. I have not been writing anything about my investing thoughts and ideas. I chose to stay away from the market until the dust has settled. It was quite meaningless looking at the market then because what you heard and what you saw was just negative news all the time.

Over this period, major economic events unfolded, financial scandals popped up one after another, shares around the world fell to the bottom and now have risen nearly 50% from the lows. I used the low period to spend more quality time with my family. After the Singapore F1 night race, i begin to pick up F1 racing. Following the sport developments and watching the race on tv with my son is certainly more fun than reading financial news.

Some forumers commented on the waves of financial turmoil and company specific misfortunes. Many believed that they seemed to know more than the average people on the street. A lot more were and maybe still are licking their wounds, after seeing their fortune vaporized in thin air. I think everyone deserves some dignity. Many of you may have bought into S-chips just like me and got burnt big time. For those who do not have a plan B, they are probably still stuck and resigning to their fate. Try selling them another counter and they will give you that angry look.

The S-chip scandals never seem to end with one victim falling after another.. from fictitious bank balances, inflated profit figures to defaulting on personal loans leading to the fall of the companies. I met a Chinese national who used to work as a banker and his experience dealing with the various clients say it all.

I don't really know who else to trust. The brokers and the analysts are there to write up a story if they wish to sell the shares. If i read the companies' financial results, there were little telling signs. Revenue was growing, margin was healthy and cashflow was strong and some even paying good dividends. The market darlings not too long ago suddenly become junk stocks, cursed and dumped by investors like no tomorrow.

At the peak of the share market meltdown, my paper loss was close to 70% because my exposure to China shares was around 70%. Shares like China Energy, XLX Fertiliser and Jiutian Chemical which i used to make quite a fair bit initially succumbed to the weakening commodity prices and lower consumer demands. I did not hesitate to sell them off when i identified good opportunities elsewhere. Some asked why i disposed of the s-chips when the share prices were so low. Well, simple. I do not hesitate to cut loss if i have better opportunity to recover my losses elsewhere.

Even my beloved Raffles Education was not spared. The Oriental Century scandal really rocked the boat and the share price plummeted. Those who are interested to know more can read the stories from various sources. On hindsight, i am thankful because i graped that golden opportunity by loading up even more shares at below $0.30.

Midas was another classic example of needing a cool head where you are torn between greed and fear. I had the courage to take the plunge and parked with a significant portion of my emergency funds. I remembered adding a fair bits at the range of $0.30 to $0.35. Fundamentally, Raffles Education and Midas are my most trusted bets as they have not failed me all this while. The underlying businesses are still robust and growing amid at a slower pace. The Chinese government's committed spending on infrastructure projects certainly bode well for Midas. The flow of contracts recently are testimonial to that belief and i think it has a long way to go.

During the uncertain period, i also bought into First Lease Shipping Trust and Rickmers Maritime. These trusts were trading at very low prices and their dividend yields were close to 40% at that time. The revenue stream for the short to medium term is pretty safe because they have locked in the chartered rates. Despite the tightening of credit, they seem to be taking the initiative to come up with script dividend scheme and also lowering DPU with the aim to ease their cashflows. The market appears to have applauded the move and these trusts have outperformed even the STI in general.

The other star perfomer is Oceanus. After all the scandals, the stock selection process is simple. I just asked my China friend. Forget about technical or fundamental analysis. I just buy because he thinks it has huge potential, just like what the CEO claims. Personally, i happen to know one of the angel investors so the decision to buy was a lot easier.

One counter that appears too good to miss is Sinotel. After my Chinese friend's advice, i decided to give it a miss, despite all the positive write-ups at one of the prominent share investment website and strong buy recommendation from brokers. In his view, this kind of business is easy to do as long as you have the money to start and you have some connection. The market is too big and too competitive. He has shared a lot about the China corporate dealings with me. Not very far from the "Confessions of a S-Chip CEO" article that was circulated not too long ago.

After my portfolio restructuring, S-chips constitute only about 10% of my share portfolio now. The collective price appreciation of Midas, Raffles, Oceanus and the 2 shipping trusts have helped recover all my paper losses. In fact, i am sitting on small gain and the entire portfolio value is higher than before the start of Lehman Brothers collapse.

As to why I sold Swiber and Cacola. Because i bought Biosensors and more Abterra. I believe the latest acquisitions have better chance of making money than the former ones. Sure or not? Well, only time can tell. Like i said earlier, no one is to trust. I don't believe in having a pretty portfolio or having a very sound fundamental analysis. I salute those who bought into Osim and Ezion because they have done better than me. And probably that is all that matters at the end of the day.

So cheer up and have fun. Do your bit for charity if you have gained from this recent rally. I feel happy to be able to give. What about you?

Transactions of My Portfolio

Bought today:

Biosensors International @ $0.49

Added more: Abterra $0.055

MEDIA RELEASE – Abterra to benefit from rising coking coal prices