Thursday, 30 August 2007
Midas up 7.7% at 3-week High!
Midas +7.7% at 3-week high of S$1.40 as investors cheer JV company Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail's latest CNY2.16 billion contract win to supply 41 train sets to Shanghai Rail Transport Line. "This contract is significant as (it's) China's first involving automated driverless metro trains, and reaffirms the strong order book momentum that we are expecting for Midas' Puzhen JV," says Credit Suisse, which has Outperform call with S$2.10 target. But stock still way off all-time high of S$2.34 set in June, as sentiment soured by Chinese media report alleging chairman Chen Wei Ping arrested in China on corruption charges (report later proven wrong), and by recent broad market weakness.
Wednesday, 29 August 2007
Midas Holdings: News Release
MIDAS' JV COMPANY NANJING SR PUZHEN RAIL TRANSPORT AND CONSORTIUM PARTNERS SECURE RMB2.16 BILLION CONTRACT
Fed Underestimated Spread of Debt Crisis
Fed Underestimated Spread of Debt Crisis By Craig Torres Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) --At the time of the Aug. 7 meeting, the stock market had lost about $1.3 trillion in market capitalization. On July 24, Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, reported its third straight decline in quarterly profit, as even prime borrowers struggled with debt payments. The earnings release showed that delinquencies were spreading into less risky loans. "The minutes indicate they underestimated how severe the problems were in the credit markets,'' said Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners LLC in Santa Monica, California. Injecting Cash Policy makers have employed a range of tools since their last scheduled meeting to ease the credit crunch. The Fed has also allowed banks to channel discount-window borrowings to their securities subsidiaries to help improve clients' access to capital. Officials clarified that they will accept as collateral securities such as asset-backed commercial paper sold by special-purpose companies. Given the way the market is, I think it would be very difficult for the Fed to avoid cutting its target rate next month, said John Silvia, chief economist.
Tuesday, 28 August 2007
DBS up Target Price of Jiutian Chemicals
DBS "70% upside from 2.11" Price Target : 12-Month S$ 3.60 (Prev S$ 3.00)
Reason for Report : 2Q07 Results ..
Story: Jiutian posted a decent set of 2Q results that were in line with our expectations. Net profit registered an impressive y-oy growth of 43% to RMB 18.7m attributed to strengthening in ASP of DMF and continuous improvement in the production process. ..
Point: Together with the results, Jiutian announced the successful completion of its new 120,000-tonne DMF facility. The on-time completion reaffirmed the company’s high commitment in promised delivery and further boosts our confidence in their earning executions. We believe this would mark a breakthrough for Jiutian, being capable of operating the world’s single largest DMF production line. ..
Relevance: As the successful completion of the new plant removed one of the uncertainties contributing to execution risk, coupled with potential M&A underpinning strong growth prospect, we have raised our valuation peg from 12x to 15x 08 PE. This translates to an undemanding 0.25x PEG over our 60% FY06- 09 EPS estimates. Accordingly, our TP is revised to S$3.60.
Monday, 27 August 2007
Sub-Prime Woes
I seldom like to pen thoughts on short term market movements, but I thought the recent market downturn and volatility had get some investors worried and having sleepless nights by looking at their portfolio sinking deeper and deeper into the red. So, I pick up the courage to write some of my thoughts on this recent "hot" topic in the markets.Frankly speaking, it had been the same old story everyday for the past few days when I picked up my copy of The Straits Times. "Asia market crashes", "Asia market down", "STI down XXX points" etc. Similar story line with experts having their go with their views on the markets. I wonder if I would just skip the story because the end result is always the same after I read them - i.e. Prepare for more volatility.Markets hates uncertainty. From my experience in the market, uncertainty rocks the market very fast. Fundamentally, nothing changes. Corporate results in S'pore had been good for the last quarter. Companies are giving dividends. Business is still going on. What changes then? Emotions. Panic. Perception. Why? Because most of these "investors" have no asset allocation plan in place. They are just buying/selling stocks based on market movements. When things are good, they sound very good. When things are bad, even good news are neutral to them. Hence, these recent concluded corporate result and special dividends have no impact on a nervous market. "Sell and get away" is the rule of the game. Furthermore, punters are running away because liquidity dries up. Some speculative stocks are down almost 50% from last peak. Suddenly, all these RTO-related counters are no longer attractive anymore.But let's look deeper into the issue and get ourselves oriented to the right way to invest. Is investing means getting away when things are bad? Of course not! It is about staying the course and riding out volatilty in the short term to achieve your long term goals. It is a simple but yet powerful concept which works throughout decades of market cycles. But why people are not following it? Because history always repeats itself! And because of this, fundamental investors have an opportunity to invest in fundamentally good stocks at decent prices. Remember when buying a stock, you are paying the market price but what you are buying is the intrinsic value of the business. As long as the intrinsic value of the business is intact, you should not panic even when the market price goes down.And of course, as I have always like to stress - Have a portfolio view of your investments. Don't be too focused on each individual stock in your portfolio and try to react on them. This will bring you nightmares and headaches because chances are you will always be trying to do something since individual stocks do fluctuate quite wildly especially during these volatile times.Well, they will always say - This Time Its Different! You see, sub-prime problems will impact the whole financial system, recession blah blah blah. Let's see how different this time it is. I will be holding my stocks dearly and buy them on further weakness.
Courtesy of fellow share investment blogger: ghchua at 9:31 PM
I seldom like to pen thoughts on short term market movements, but I thought the recent market downturn and volatility had get some investors worried and having sleepless nights by looking at their portfolio sinking deeper and deeper into the red. So, I pick up the courage to write some of my thoughts on this recent "hot" topic in the markets.Frankly speaking, it had been the same old story everyday for the past few days when I picked up my copy of The Straits Times. "Asia market crashes", "Asia market down", "STI down XXX points" etc. Similar story line with experts having their go with their views on the markets. I wonder if I would just skip the story because the end result is always the same after I read them - i.e. Prepare for more volatility.Markets hates uncertainty. From my experience in the market, uncertainty rocks the market very fast. Fundamentally, nothing changes. Corporate results in S'pore had been good for the last quarter. Companies are giving dividends. Business is still going on. What changes then? Emotions. Panic. Perception. Why? Because most of these "investors" have no asset allocation plan in place. They are just buying/selling stocks based on market movements. When things are good, they sound very good. When things are bad, even good news are neutral to them. Hence, these recent concluded corporate result and special dividends have no impact on a nervous market. "Sell and get away" is the rule of the game. Furthermore, punters are running away because liquidity dries up. Some speculative stocks are down almost 50% from last peak. Suddenly, all these RTO-related counters are no longer attractive anymore.But let's look deeper into the issue and get ourselves oriented to the right way to invest. Is investing means getting away when things are bad? Of course not! It is about staying the course and riding out volatilty in the short term to achieve your long term goals. It is a simple but yet powerful concept which works throughout decades of market cycles. But why people are not following it? Because history always repeats itself! And because of this, fundamental investors have an opportunity to invest in fundamentally good stocks at decent prices. Remember when buying a stock, you are paying the market price but what you are buying is the intrinsic value of the business. As long as the intrinsic value of the business is intact, you should not panic even when the market price goes down.And of course, as I have always like to stress - Have a portfolio view of your investments. Don't be too focused on each individual stock in your portfolio and try to react on them. This will bring you nightmares and headaches because chances are you will always be trying to do something since individual stocks do fluctuate quite wildly especially during these volatile times.Well, they will always say - This Time Its Different! You see, sub-prime problems will impact the whole financial system, recession blah blah blah. Let's see how different this time it is. I will be holding my stocks dearly and buy them on further weakness.
Courtesy of fellow share investment blogger: ghchua at 9:31 PM
Friday, 24 August 2007
DBS has more CDO Exposure
24-08-2007 11:44:45 UPDATE 1-Singapore's DBS says has more direct CDO exposure (adds detail, background) By Saeed Azhar SINGAPORE, Aug 24 (Reuters) - DBS Group Holdings , Southeast Asia's biggest bank, said on Friday it has more direct exposure to collateralised debt obligations than previously declared, sending its shares down over 2 percent. Broker CLSA said in a report this week that while Singapore banks have limited exposure to collateralised debt obligations, DBS may have S$2.4 billion ($1.6 billion) worth of CDO holdings -- nearly double the S$1.3 billion direct exposure it initially declared. It said DBS may have more direct CDO exposure through a special purpose vehicle that had commercial paper backed by S$1.1 billion worth of CDOs, with the paper due for renewal.
DBS bank had previously said that it had distributed $1.7 billion of structured products involving CDOs that were backed by AA and AAA rated collateral to institutional and private clients. Share prices of banks have slid on worries about further fallout from a global credit squeeze, and two of Singapore's three banks have also taken smaller hits on their books due to their exposure to complex debt-linked securities.
Analysts have warned weaker markets may force banks to further mark down their portfolio of credit derivatives, amid looming risk of credit downgrades for these instruments. CLSA said in its report that if the three banks mark down their entire asset-backed CDOs, the impact on financial year 2007 earnings would be around 11 percent. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. said earlier this month it had marked down its portfolio of CDOs by US$33 million as of end June while the No. 2 lender, United Overseas Bank , had made provisions of S$34 million at end June. But most analysts say despite the recent shift in risk appetite there is still growth potential for Singapore banks as resurgent construction and property sector and strong economic growth boost their loan books.
DBS bank had previously said that it had distributed $1.7 billion of structured products involving CDOs that were backed by AA and AAA rated collateral to institutional and private clients. Share prices of banks have slid on worries about further fallout from a global credit squeeze, and two of Singapore's three banks have also taken smaller hits on their books due to their exposure to complex debt-linked securities.
Analysts have warned weaker markets may force banks to further mark down their portfolio of credit derivatives, amid looming risk of credit downgrades for these instruments. CLSA said in its report that if the three banks mark down their entire asset-backed CDOs, the impact on financial year 2007 earnings would be around 11 percent. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. said earlier this month it had marked down its portfolio of CDOs by US$33 million as of end June while the No. 2 lender, United Overseas Bank , had made provisions of S$34 million at end June. But most analysts say despite the recent shift in risk appetite there is still growth potential for Singapore banks as resurgent construction and property sector and strong economic growth boost their loan books.
Thursday, 23 August 2007
Kit's Share Portfolio as at 23 Aug 2007
Today transactions:
Sold:
Midas
Sihuan
Raffles Edu
Pine
Share Portfolio now:
Foreland
Hongwei
Pine
Jiutian
Asia Ent.
Sold:
Midas
Sihuan
Raffles Edu
Pine
Share Portfolio now:
Foreland
Hongwei
Pine
Jiutian
Asia Ent.
Monday, 20 August 2007
Kit's Share Portfolio as at 20 August 2007
Holdings:
Foreland
Hongwei
Midas
Jiutian
Sihuan
Raffles Edu
Pine Agritech
Asia Enterprise
Foreland
Hongwei
Midas
Jiutian
Sihuan
Raffles Edu
Pine Agritech
Asia Enterprise
Tuesday, 14 August 2007
Share Trading & Investment Strategies
交易买卖投机技巧20招 在任何复杂多变的投机市场上，基本的交易策略是一致的。并且，掌握一般的投机策略也是必须的。在这个基础之上，交易员更要学习和掌握一定的实战技巧，因为一些经过大量实践检验的投机技巧不仅充满哲理涵义，而且在实战中有很强的指导意义。在这里，笔者总结了许多资深交易员归纳提倡的20条交易买卖投机技巧，供交易员参考，亦希望您能从中获益。
1、以“闲钱”投机 记住，用来投机的钱一定是“闲钱”，也就是一时之内没有迫切、准确用途的资金。因为，如果交易员以家庭生活的必须费用来投资，万一亏蚀，就会直接影响家庭生计。或者，用一笔不该用来投机的钱来生财时，心理上已处于下风，故此在决策时亦难以保持客观、冷静的态度，在投机市场里失败的机会就会增加。
2、知己者为上 知己知彼，百战不殆。但身在投机市场，则知己为上，交易员需要了解自己的性格，因为容易冲动或情绪化倾向严重的人并不适合这项投机。成功的交易员，大多数能够控制自己的情绪且有严谨的纪律性，能够有效地约束自己。所以说，知己者，方可在市场上最终胜出。
3、正视市场，摒弃幻想 市场是真实的，不要感情用事，过分憧憬将来和缅怀过去。一位资深交易员说：一个充满幻想、感情丰富、十分外露的人是一个美好快乐的人，但他并不适合做职业玩家，一位成功的交易员是可以分开他的感情、幻想和交易的。
4、小户切勿盲目投机 成功的交易员不会盲目跟从旁人的意见。当大家都处于同一投资位置，尤其是那些小投机者亦都纷纷跟进时，成功的交易员会感到危险而改变路线。盲从是“小户”投机者的一个致命的心理弱点。一个经济数据一发表，一则新闻突然闪出，
5分钟价位图一“突破”，便争先恐后地跳入市场。不怕大家一起亏钱，只怕大家都赚。从某种意义上说，有时看错市场走势，或进单后形势突然逆转，因而导致单子被套住，这是正常的现象，即使是高手也不能幸免。然而，在如何决策和进行事后处理时，最愚蠢的行为却都是源于小户心理。 5、勿过量交易 要成为成功的交易员，其中一项原则是随时保持2-3倍以上的资金以应付价位的波动。假如你资金不充分，就应减少手上所持的买卖合约,否则，就可能因资金不足而被迫“斩仓”以腾出资金来，纵然后来证明眼光准确亦无济于事。
6、主意既定，勿轻率改变 如经充分考虑和分析，预先定下了当日入市的价位和计划，就不要因眼前价格涨落影响而轻易改变决定，基于当日价位的变化以及市场消息而临时作出的决定，除非是投资圣手灵机一闪，一般而言都是十分危险的。
7、当机立断 投机交易时，导致失败的心理因素很多，一种常见的情形就是交易员面对损失越来越大，甚至知道已不能心存侥幸时，却往往因为犹豫不决，未能当机立断，因而越陷越深，损失增加。壮士断臂，当断则断。
8、他人意见不实行 这里并非是提倡独断专行。须知道，交易员中只有你会为自己的投资结果负责任。当你已把握了市场的方向而有了基本的决定时，不要因旁人的影响而轻易改变决定。有时别人的意见会显得很合理，因而促使你改变主意，然而事后才发现自己的决定才是最正确的。所以说，别人的意见永远只是参考，自己的意见才是买卖的决定。
9、不肯定时，暂且观望 交易员并非每天均须入市，初入行者往往热衷于入市买卖，但成功的交易员则会等待机会，当他门入市后，感到疑惑或不能肯定时亦会先行离市，暂抱观望态度。
10、适当停买停卖 日复一日的交易可能会令你的判断逐渐迟钝。一位成功的交易员曾说：每当我感到精神状态和判断效率低于90%，我开始赚不到钱，而当我的状态低过90%时，便开始蚀本，此时，我便会放下一切而去休假。暂短的离市休息能令你重新认识市场，重新认识自己，更能帮你看清未来交易的方向。切记，久在林中，不见树木。
11、逆境时，离市“休息” 交易员由于涉及个人利益的得失，因此精神长期处于极度紧张状态。如果盈利，还有一点满足感来慰籍；但如果身处逆境，亏损不断，甚至连连发生不必要的失误，这时要千万注意，不要头脑发胀失去清醒和冷静，此时，最佳的选择是抛开一切，离市休息。等休息结束时，暂时盈亏已成过去，发胀的头脑业已冷静，思想包袱也已卸下。相信交易的效率会得到提高。有句话，“不会休息的将军不是好将军”，不懂得休养生息，破敌拔城无从谈起。
12、忍耐也是交易 投机市场有一句格言说“忍耐是一种交易”但相信很少交易员能够做到这一点，或真正理解它的含义。对于从事交易工作的人，必须培养自己良好的忍性和耐力。忍耐，往往是投机成功的一个“乘数”，关系到最终的结果是正是负。不少交易员，并不是他们的分析能力低，也不是他们缺乏投资经验，而仅是欠缺了一份忍耐力，从而导致过早买入或者卖出，招致不必要的损失。因此，每一名涉足交易的投机者都应从自己的意识上认识到，忍耐同样也是在交易。
13、过去的价位，让他过去吧 “过去的价位”往往是一个相当难以克服的心理障碍。不少交易员就是因为受到过去价位的影响，造成投资判断有误。因为一般来说，见过了高价之后，当市场回落时，对出现的新低价会感到相当的不习惯；当时纵然各种分析显示后市将会再跌，市场投机气候十分恶劣，但交易员在这些新低价位水平前，非但不会把自己所持的货售出，还会觉得很“低”而有买入的冲动，结果买入后便被牢牢地套住了。因此，交易员记住，“过去的价位”，就让它彻底过去吧。
14、止蚀位置，操刀割肉 订立一个止蚀位置，（也就是在这个点，已经到了你所能承受的最大的亏损位置），一旦市场逆转，价格跌到止蚀点时，要勇于操刀割肉。这是一项非常重要的投机技巧。由于交易市场风险颇高，为了避免万一投机失误时带来的损失，因此每一次入市买卖时，我们都应该订下止蚀盘，即当价格跌至某个预定的价位，还可能下跌时，立即结清交易。这样操作，发生的损失也只是有限制、有接受能力的损失，而不至于损失进一步扩大，乃至血本无归。因为即使一时割肉，但投机本钱还在，留得青山在，就不怕没柴烧。
15、不可孤注一掷 从事交易，要量力而为，万不可孤注一掷，把一生的积蓄或全部家底如下大赌注一样全部投入。因为在这种情况下，一旦市势本身预测不准，就有发生大亏损甚至不能自拔的可能。这时比较明知的做法就是实行“金字塔加码”的办法，先进行一部分投机，如果市势明朗、于己有利、就再增加部分投机。此外，更要注意在市势逆境的时候，千万要预防孤注一掷的心态萌发。
16、不要为几个点而误事 投机买卖中，获利时不要盲目追求整数。在实际操作时，有的人在建立头寸后，给自己定下一个盈利目标，比如要赚够200美元再离开，心理总在等待这一时刻的到来。盈利后，有时价格已接近目标，此时获利平盘的机会很好，但只是还差几个点未到位，本来可以平盘收钱，却碍于原来的目标，在等待中错过了最好的价位，坐失良机。请记住，为了强争几个点而误事不值得。
17、见势不对，反戈一击 有时随市进行买卖，但入市时已经接近尾声，就要注意，一旦发生逆转，见势不对，要反戈一击。例如：在多头市场上买入后，市价却牛皮不展。随即市价回档急跌。这时不要惊慌，最好反思一下。如能认定目前是逆转势，就要立即斩仓，反戈一击。
18、寻找盘局突破时建立头寸 盘局指市价波动幅度狭窄，买卖力量势均力敌，暂时处于交锋拉锯状态的情况。无论上升行情中的盘局还是下跌行情中的盘局，一旦盘局结束，突破阻力位或支撑位，市价就会破关而成突跃式前进。对于有经验的交易员，这是入市建立头寸的良好时机。如果盘局属于长期关口，突破盘局时所建立的头寸所获必丰。
19、小心大跌后的反弹与急升后的调整 在投机市场上，价格的急升或急跌都不会像一条直线似的上升或一条直线似的下跌，升的过急总会调整，跌得过猛也要反弹，调整或反弹的幅度比较复杂，并不容易掌握，因此在价格急升二三百点或五六百个点之后要格外小心，宁可靠边观望，也不宜贸然跟进。
20、学会风险控制 投机市场是个风险很大的市场，它的风险主要在于决定价格的变量太多。虽然现在关于价格波动的理论、学说多种多样，但市场的波动仍经常出乎投资者们的意外。对交易市场交易员和操作者来说，有关风险概率方面的知识尤其要学一点。也就是说，在市场投机中，有必要充分认识风险和效益、赢钱与输钱的概率及防范的几个大问题。如果对风险控制没有准确的认识，随意进行投机买卖，输钱是必然的。
1、以“闲钱”投机 记住，用来投机的钱一定是“闲钱”，也就是一时之内没有迫切、准确用途的资金。因为，如果交易员以家庭生活的必须费用来投资，万一亏蚀，就会直接影响家庭生计。或者，用一笔不该用来投机的钱来生财时，心理上已处于下风，故此在决策时亦难以保持客观、冷静的态度，在投机市场里失败的机会就会增加。
2、知己者为上 知己知彼，百战不殆。但身在投机市场，则知己为上，交易员需要了解自己的性格，因为容易冲动或情绪化倾向严重的人并不适合这项投机。成功的交易员，大多数能够控制自己的情绪且有严谨的纪律性，能够有效地约束自己。所以说，知己者，方可在市场上最终胜出。
3、正视市场，摒弃幻想 市场是真实的，不要感情用事，过分憧憬将来和缅怀过去。一位资深交易员说：一个充满幻想、感情丰富、十分外露的人是一个美好快乐的人，但他并不适合做职业玩家，一位成功的交易员是可以分开他的感情、幻想和交易的。
4、小户切勿盲目投机 成功的交易员不会盲目跟从旁人的意见。当大家都处于同一投资位置，尤其是那些小投机者亦都纷纷跟进时，成功的交易员会感到危险而改变路线。盲从是“小户”投机者的一个致命的心理弱点。一个经济数据一发表，一则新闻突然闪出，
5分钟价位图一“突破”，便争先恐后地跳入市场。不怕大家一起亏钱，只怕大家都赚。从某种意义上说，有时看错市场走势，或进单后形势突然逆转，因而导致单子被套住，这是正常的现象，即使是高手也不能幸免。然而，在如何决策和进行事后处理时，最愚蠢的行为却都是源于小户心理。 5、勿过量交易 要成为成功的交易员，其中一项原则是随时保持2-3倍以上的资金以应付价位的波动。假如你资金不充分，就应减少手上所持的买卖合约,否则，就可能因资金不足而被迫“斩仓”以腾出资金来，纵然后来证明眼光准确亦无济于事。
6、主意既定，勿轻率改变 如经充分考虑和分析，预先定下了当日入市的价位和计划，就不要因眼前价格涨落影响而轻易改变决定，基于当日价位的变化以及市场消息而临时作出的决定，除非是投资圣手灵机一闪，一般而言都是十分危险的。
7、当机立断 投机交易时，导致失败的心理因素很多，一种常见的情形就是交易员面对损失越来越大，甚至知道已不能心存侥幸时，却往往因为犹豫不决，未能当机立断，因而越陷越深，损失增加。壮士断臂，当断则断。
8、他人意见不实行 这里并非是提倡独断专行。须知道，交易员中只有你会为自己的投资结果负责任。当你已把握了市场的方向而有了基本的决定时，不要因旁人的影响而轻易改变决定。有时别人的意见会显得很合理，因而促使你改变主意，然而事后才发现自己的决定才是最正确的。所以说，别人的意见永远只是参考，自己的意见才是买卖的决定。
9、不肯定时，暂且观望 交易员并非每天均须入市，初入行者往往热衷于入市买卖，但成功的交易员则会等待机会，当他门入市后，感到疑惑或不能肯定时亦会先行离市，暂抱观望态度。
10、适当停买停卖 日复一日的交易可能会令你的判断逐渐迟钝。一位成功的交易员曾说：每当我感到精神状态和判断效率低于90%，我开始赚不到钱，而当我的状态低过90%时，便开始蚀本，此时，我便会放下一切而去休假。暂短的离市休息能令你重新认识市场，重新认识自己，更能帮你看清未来交易的方向。切记，久在林中，不见树木。
11、逆境时，离市“休息” 交易员由于涉及个人利益的得失，因此精神长期处于极度紧张状态。如果盈利，还有一点满足感来慰籍；但如果身处逆境，亏损不断，甚至连连发生不必要的失误，这时要千万注意，不要头脑发胀失去清醒和冷静，此时，最佳的选择是抛开一切，离市休息。等休息结束时，暂时盈亏已成过去，发胀的头脑业已冷静，思想包袱也已卸下。相信交易的效率会得到提高。有句话，“不会休息的将军不是好将军”，不懂得休养生息，破敌拔城无从谈起。
12、忍耐也是交易 投机市场有一句格言说“忍耐是一种交易”但相信很少交易员能够做到这一点，或真正理解它的含义。对于从事交易工作的人，必须培养自己良好的忍性和耐力。忍耐，往往是投机成功的一个“乘数”，关系到最终的结果是正是负。不少交易员，并不是他们的分析能力低，也不是他们缺乏投资经验，而仅是欠缺了一份忍耐力，从而导致过早买入或者卖出，招致不必要的损失。因此，每一名涉足交易的投机者都应从自己的意识上认识到，忍耐同样也是在交易。
13、过去的价位，让他过去吧 “过去的价位”往往是一个相当难以克服的心理障碍。不少交易员就是因为受到过去价位的影响，造成投资判断有误。因为一般来说，见过了高价之后，当市场回落时，对出现的新低价会感到相当的不习惯；当时纵然各种分析显示后市将会再跌，市场投机气候十分恶劣，但交易员在这些新低价位水平前，非但不会把自己所持的货售出，还会觉得很“低”而有买入的冲动，结果买入后便被牢牢地套住了。因此，交易员记住，“过去的价位”，就让它彻底过去吧。
14、止蚀位置，操刀割肉 订立一个止蚀位置，（也就是在这个点，已经到了你所能承受的最大的亏损位置），一旦市场逆转，价格跌到止蚀点时，要勇于操刀割肉。这是一项非常重要的投机技巧。由于交易市场风险颇高，为了避免万一投机失误时带来的损失，因此每一次入市买卖时，我们都应该订下止蚀盘，即当价格跌至某个预定的价位，还可能下跌时，立即结清交易。这样操作，发生的损失也只是有限制、有接受能力的损失，而不至于损失进一步扩大，乃至血本无归。因为即使一时割肉，但投机本钱还在，留得青山在，就不怕没柴烧。
15、不可孤注一掷 从事交易，要量力而为，万不可孤注一掷，把一生的积蓄或全部家底如下大赌注一样全部投入。因为在这种情况下，一旦市势本身预测不准，就有发生大亏损甚至不能自拔的可能。这时比较明知的做法就是实行“金字塔加码”的办法，先进行一部分投机，如果市势明朗、于己有利、就再增加部分投机。此外，更要注意在市势逆境的时候，千万要预防孤注一掷的心态萌发。
16、不要为几个点而误事 投机买卖中，获利时不要盲目追求整数。在实际操作时，有的人在建立头寸后，给自己定下一个盈利目标，比如要赚够200美元再离开，心理总在等待这一时刻的到来。盈利后，有时价格已接近目标，此时获利平盘的机会很好，但只是还差几个点未到位，本来可以平盘收钱，却碍于原来的目标，在等待中错过了最好的价位，坐失良机。请记住，为了强争几个点而误事不值得。
17、见势不对，反戈一击 有时随市进行买卖，但入市时已经接近尾声，就要注意，一旦发生逆转，见势不对，要反戈一击。例如：在多头市场上买入后，市价却牛皮不展。随即市价回档急跌。这时不要惊慌，最好反思一下。如能认定目前是逆转势，就要立即斩仓，反戈一击。
18、寻找盘局突破时建立头寸 盘局指市价波动幅度狭窄，买卖力量势均力敌，暂时处于交锋拉锯状态的情况。无论上升行情中的盘局还是下跌行情中的盘局，一旦盘局结束，突破阻力位或支撑位，市价就会破关而成突跃式前进。对于有经验的交易员，这是入市建立头寸的良好时机。如果盘局属于长期关口，突破盘局时所建立的头寸所获必丰。
19、小心大跌后的反弹与急升后的调整 在投机市场上，价格的急升或急跌都不会像一条直线似的上升或一条直线似的下跌，升的过急总会调整，跌得过猛也要反弹，调整或反弹的幅度比较复杂，并不容易掌握，因此在价格急升二三百点或五六百个点之后要格外小心，宁可靠边观望，也不宜贸然跟进。
20、学会风险控制 投机市场是个风险很大的市场，它的风险主要在于决定价格的变量太多。虽然现在关于价格波动的理论、学说多种多样，但市场的波动仍经常出乎投资者们的意外。对交易市场交易员和操作者来说，有关风险概率方面的知识尤其要学一点。也就是说，在市场投机中，有必要充分认识风险和效益、赢钱与输钱的概率及防范的几个大问题。如果对风险控制没有准确的认识，随意进行投机买卖，输钱是必然的。
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