Latest Holdings:
Cash
China Fishery (Bought additional shares)
China Energy
ChinaHongxing
ChinaWheel (Bought additional shares)
ChinaXLX (Bought additional shares)
Jiutian Chemical (Bought additional shares)
Sihuan
STX Pan Ocean
CPF
Asia Enterprise
Midas
Raffles Education
The last 2 weeks was good as I took advantage of the weak market sentiments to add position of some of my holdings. Over the past fortnight, some substantial shareholders and directors also bought shares in companies they felt undervalued or have been oversold. Some of them are:
ChinaHongxing
China Fishery
Jiutian
China XLX
My next round of buying will be 20% lower of current prices. I may continue to buy more if I see value emerging and more importantly the fundamental of the companies must not deteriorate. On one hand I hope that the current downfall can continue for a little longer but I also fear the negative sentiments that it brings. Already, my boss and colleagues are painting very glum picture with US recession on the horizon and China bubbles to burst. If this negative feeling persists, it can only bring more harm to the economy and affecting our daily lives adversely. Some naive ones feel that as long as they stay away from the share market, they can be immunised and spared. But from my experience, when the bosses don't feel good, they will hold back pay rises and look to cut costs here and there and that eventually will affect you and I. So like it or not, we better pray that the market recovers sooner than later!
Friday, 30 November 2007
Performance of Virtual Fund ~ End Nov 2007
Sum invested = $647,900
Cash holding = $850
Realised profit = $148,750 = 29.7%
Unrealised Loss = -$95,945 = -19.19%
Latest Holdings:
China Fishery -$3,400
ChinaHongxing -$53,245
Courage Marine -$8,000
Fibrechem +$2,000
KS Energy -$10,400
Raffles Education +$2,100
Sihuan +$2,000
STX Pan Ocean -$27,000
Cash holding = $850
Realised profit = $148,750 = 29.7%
Unrealised Loss = -$95,945 = -19.19%
Latest Holdings:
China Fishery -$3,400
ChinaHongxing -$53,245
Courage Marine -$8,000
Fibrechem +$2,000
KS Energy -$10,400
Raffles Education +$2,100
Sihuan +$2,000
STX Pan Ocean -$27,000
Tuesday, 20 November 2007
Hot Response To ChinaHongxing's Share Placement
DMG Research - Hot response to Hongxing share placement
Despite volatile market conditions and the prospect of earnings dilution on a per share basis, listed China-based shoemaker China Hongxing Sports has received unexpectedly strong response to its $472 million share placement. All 400 million new Hongxing shares have been snapped up largely by institutional buyers. China Hongxing said last week that the placement at $1.18 a share was a 5.14 per cent discount to the weighted average price of $1.2439 on Nov 14.
The stock fell 25 cents yesterday to close at $1. Listed here in late 2005, the Fujian-based sports footwear and accessories specialist is one of the top three players in China, with over 3,000 stores across the country - just behind its Hong Kong-listed rival, Lining, which has 5,000 stores.
The placement was done primarily to fund its aggressive brand-building across China in the lead-up to the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing next year. Some $330 million of the estimated net proceeds of $458 million, will go towards the company's expansion of its sales & distribution network, advertisement & promotion, and renovation and upgrading of older stores. The balance will be used to set up four logistic centres, for production capacity expansion and for general working capital.
While noting that FY08/09 earnings per share will be diluted by about 15 per cent by the placement, analysts nevertheless note that this brand-building and profile-raising exercise is critical for long-term sustained growth in a highly competitive Chinese market, where over a dozen players compete tenaciously, often with their stores sitting next to each other on main streets of cities across the country. Although downgrading the price target to $1.32 (from $1.48), Kim Eng noted that China Hongxing's revenue would increase by one to 3 per cent. 'We have also increased gross margin assumptions to reflect lower outsourcing costs,' it said in a note yesterday. 'We continue to like Hongxing as a key beneficiary of the Olympics and China's rising consumption spending.'
About $195 million of the placement funds will be used to secure prime 100-200 sq m stores, which require 24 months of rent as deposit. Hongxing's strategy has been to offer financial assistance to its distributors to fund this rental advance, and collect the money back over the second and third year, to be re-deployed for opening newer tores. China Hongxing, which is fast expanding its sales and distribution network, is also upgrading its older stores to reflect a younger and more dynamic brand image. And with TV stations already demanding huge upfront payments for air-time in the lead up to the Olympics, a portion of the funds raised is also being set aside for a media blitz.
Recently, the group posted a more than doubling in third quarter net profit to 91 million yuan (S$17.8 million), thanks to stronger margins, higher sales and better product mix. Net earnings for the first nine months also more than doubled to 260 million yuan.
Despite volatile market conditions and the prospect of earnings dilution on a per share basis, listed China-based shoemaker China Hongxing Sports has received unexpectedly strong response to its $472 million share placement. All 400 million new Hongxing shares have been snapped up largely by institutional buyers. China Hongxing said last week that the placement at $1.18 a share was a 5.14 per cent discount to the weighted average price of $1.2439 on Nov 14.
The stock fell 25 cents yesterday to close at $1. Listed here in late 2005, the Fujian-based sports footwear and accessories specialist is one of the top three players in China, with over 3,000 stores across the country - just behind its Hong Kong-listed rival, Lining, which has 5,000 stores.
The placement was done primarily to fund its aggressive brand-building across China in the lead-up to the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing next year. Some $330 million of the estimated net proceeds of $458 million, will go towards the company's expansion of its sales & distribution network, advertisement & promotion, and renovation and upgrading of older stores. The balance will be used to set up four logistic centres, for production capacity expansion and for general working capital.
While noting that FY08/09 earnings per share will be diluted by about 15 per cent by the placement, analysts nevertheless note that this brand-building and profile-raising exercise is critical for long-term sustained growth in a highly competitive Chinese market, where over a dozen players compete tenaciously, often with their stores sitting next to each other on main streets of cities across the country. Although downgrading the price target to $1.32 (from $1.48), Kim Eng noted that China Hongxing's revenue would increase by one to 3 per cent. 'We have also increased gross margin assumptions to reflect lower outsourcing costs,' it said in a note yesterday. 'We continue to like Hongxing as a key beneficiary of the Olympics and China's rising consumption spending.'
About $195 million of the placement funds will be used to secure prime 100-200 sq m stores, which require 24 months of rent as deposit. Hongxing's strategy has been to offer financial assistance to its distributors to fund this rental advance, and collect the money back over the second and third year, to be re-deployed for opening newer tores. China Hongxing, which is fast expanding its sales and distribution network, is also upgrading its older stores to reflect a younger and more dynamic brand image. And with TV stations already demanding huge upfront payments for air-time in the lead up to the Olympics, a portion of the funds raised is also being set aside for a media blitz.
Recently, the group posted a more than doubling in third quarter net profit to 91 million yuan (S$17.8 million), thanks to stronger margins, higher sales and better product mix. Net earnings for the first nine months also more than doubled to 260 million yuan.
Friday, 16 November 2007
Performance of Virtual Fund
Sum invested = $647,900
Cash holding = $850
Realised profit = $148,750 = 29.7%
Unrealised Loss = -$19,800 = -3.96%
It has been a disappointing week in general. Some companies have reported excellent Q3 results but the weaker market sentiments sent the share prices lower and lower. I would advise investors to stay away from the current market. Have a systematic plan to average down if your invested companies have performed well fundamentally. Keep yourself busy and avoid looking at the hourly price fluctuations. Come back in few months time and things may be better by then. For those who favour S-shares like me, stay positive. I still believe the foreign funds will come here to buy up sooner or later. Many counters have lost the support they used to enjoy because the foreign fund managers have enough problems themselves. Many are forced to realise their gains to cover their sub-prime losses. Sounds familiar right?
Some investors have not been paying attention to the latest set of numbers and continue to average down prices blindly. I would advise them to average down wisely. Take for example Pine Agritech. The fundamental of the Company has somewhat changed with weaker sales and lower profit margin. Pine appeared to be so solid just few months back with the aggresive expansion plan but also had to succumb to slower growth in its biz, at least in the short run. The rising costs have been a major concern for many companies and this is becoming even more obvious in the latest financial reports.
As for ChinaHongxing, it would appear very crazy to have placed out 400 million shares! This can be a significant IPO on its own. Investors maybe in for disappointment in the short run due to the share dilution. The 2 days trading halt also did not reflect well on the company's dealing practices and transparency. Many punters were caught off-guarded. On the brighter side, this share placement exercise would mean the Company now has the war chest to move up one level and may even be capable of acquiring the smaller players. In the retail sector, the ability to expand with bigger retail areas at quicker pace can really win the race to be the key player in the market.
STX Pan Ocean. I bought some to test the water. The Company has mentioned officially that it is working with the respective exchanges to allow migration of shares between SGX and Korean Stock Exchange. If the plan materialises in Q1 2008, there will be price arbitrage opportunity if the price gap between the two exchanges continue to persist. Currently it is trading at above S$6 in Korea! On the merit of its Q3 results, the valuation appear undemanding and the future prospects look promising with BDI staying firm.
Cash holding = $850
Realised profit = $148,750 = 29.7%
Unrealised Loss = -$19,800 = -3.96%
It has been a disappointing week in general. Some companies have reported excellent Q3 results but the weaker market sentiments sent the share prices lower and lower. I would advise investors to stay away from the current market. Have a systematic plan to average down if your invested companies have performed well fundamentally. Keep yourself busy and avoid looking at the hourly price fluctuations. Come back in few months time and things may be better by then. For those who favour S-shares like me, stay positive. I still believe the foreign funds will come here to buy up sooner or later. Many counters have lost the support they used to enjoy because the foreign fund managers have enough problems themselves. Many are forced to realise their gains to cover their sub-prime losses. Sounds familiar right?
Some investors have not been paying attention to the latest set of numbers and continue to average down prices blindly. I would advise them to average down wisely. Take for example Pine Agritech. The fundamental of the Company has somewhat changed with weaker sales and lower profit margin. Pine appeared to be so solid just few months back with the aggresive expansion plan but also had to succumb to slower growth in its biz, at least in the short run. The rising costs have been a major concern for many companies and this is becoming even more obvious in the latest financial reports.
As for ChinaHongxing, it would appear very crazy to have placed out 400 million shares! This can be a significant IPO on its own. Investors maybe in for disappointment in the short run due to the share dilution. The 2 days trading halt also did not reflect well on the company's dealing practices and transparency. Many punters were caught off-guarded. On the brighter side, this share placement exercise would mean the Company now has the war chest to move up one level and may even be capable of acquiring the smaller players. In the retail sector, the ability to expand with bigger retail areas at quicker pace can really win the race to be the key player in the market.
STX Pan Ocean. I bought some to test the water. The Company has mentioned officially that it is working with the respective exchanges to allow migration of shares between SGX and Korean Stock Exchange. If the plan materialises in Q1 2008, there will be price arbitrage opportunity if the price gap between the two exchanges continue to persist. Currently it is trading at above S$6 in Korea! On the merit of its Q3 results, the valuation appear undemanding and the future prospects look promising with BDI staying firm.
Thursday, 15 November 2007
China Hongxing
NEWS RELEASE
CHINA HONGXING REGISTERS NET PROFIT SURGE OF 136.7% IN 3Q FY2007 TO RMB90.9 MILLION
* Turnover rose 59.2% to RMB478.5 million as a result of higher product sales across the board underpinned by successful advertising and promotion efforts
* Gross profit margin improved from 38.6% in 3Q FY2006 to 43.8% in 3Q FY2007
on the back of higher selling prices, changes in product mix and greater economies of scale
* Net profit climbed 136.7% to RMB90.9 million lifted by higher turnover
Singapore, 14 November 2007 – China Hongxing Sports Limited
China Hongxing, one of the leading sporting goods companies in the PRC, today reported commendable results for the quarter ended 30 September, 2007 (“3Q FY2007”).
Group turnover soared 59.2% from RMB300.6 million in 3Q FY2006 to RMB478.5 million in 3Q FY2007, while net profit surged 136.7% to RMB90.9 million over the same period. Driven by its sustained efforts in advertising and promotion activities in boosting the Erke brand image and its relentless efforts to augment its presence in the PRC through accelerating sales network expansion rate, the Group continued to achieve an outstanding set of results this quarter. The results reflect a strong appetite for its products across the PRC that has underpinned higher prices and strong sales volumes.
CHINA HONGXING REGISTERS NET PROFIT SURGE OF 136.7% IN 3Q FY2007 TO RMB90.9 MILLION
* Turnover rose 59.2% to RMB478.5 million as a result of higher product sales across the board underpinned by successful advertising and promotion efforts
* Gross profit margin improved from 38.6% in 3Q FY2006 to 43.8% in 3Q FY2007
on the back of higher selling prices, changes in product mix and greater economies of scale
* Net profit climbed 136.7% to RMB90.9 million lifted by higher turnover
Singapore, 14 November 2007 – China Hongxing Sports Limited
China Hongxing, one of the leading sporting goods companies in the PRC, today reported commendable results for the quarter ended 30 September, 2007 (“3Q FY2007”).
Group turnover soared 59.2% from RMB300.6 million in 3Q FY2006 to RMB478.5 million in 3Q FY2007, while net profit surged 136.7% to RMB90.9 million over the same period. Driven by its sustained efforts in advertising and promotion activities in boosting the Erke brand image and its relentless efforts to augment its presence in the PRC through accelerating sales network expansion rate, the Group continued to achieve an outstanding set of results this quarter. The results reflect a strong appetite for its products across the PRC that has underpinned higher prices and strong sales volumes.
Wednesday, 14 November 2007
Performance of Virtual Fund
Sum invested = $647,900
Cash holding = $850
Realised profit = $148,750 = 29.7%
Unrealised Loss = -$1,850 = -0.4%
Cash holding = $850
Realised profit = $148,750 = 29.7%
Unrealised Loss = -$1,850 = -0.4%
China Wheel - by Phillip Securities Research
A strong set of interim results
14 November 2007
3Q FY07 results review.
China Wheel Holdings (“CWH”) recorded a flat growth in 3Q FY07, as its factory utilization rate reached 98.8%. CWH’s net profit increased 7.9% YoY to RMB 25.9 million in 3Q FY07, on the back of sales growth of 11.4% to RMB 226.9 million. Gross profit increased 6.1% YoY to RMB 38.1 million. The slight dip in GP margin was due to 1) RMB appreciation which affected export
segment’s margin; 2) the Group’s provision of rebates for some promising distributors; 3) the adjustment of staff salaries. Expenses are in line with sales growth.
In 9M FY07, CWH’s net profit grew 49.3% to RMB 80.7 million and sales grew 22.1% to RMB 673 million. Receivables and Payables both increased with sales growth, and remain in healthy range. Gearing went up to 1.9 mainly due to the issue of convertible bonds in August. CWH also achieved positive cash flow of RMB 42 million in 9M FY07.
Growth driven by newly built Tianjin plant.
The phase I of Tianjin plant is on track, and will start commercial production in the beginning of 2008. CWH also formed a joint venture company Tianjin Diastal Wheel Manufacturing with Qinhuangdao Discastal (10% of JV) and Macau Ruizhi (10% of JV). Tianjin Dicastal will operate the 2 million wheels of the new Tianjin plant (Phase I only). As Qihuangdao Discastal is a qualified OEM supplier to the Toyota car plant in Tianjin and Macau Ruizhi is an established distributor of wheels to various Japanese car plants in Guangzhou and other regions, the management of CWH is very confident to capitalize on their partners’ expertise and accelerate the new plant’s utilization rate to 100% by 3Q FY08.
Maintain BUY and Fair Value Estimate of S$1.36.
We have revised our forecasts slightly by adjusting up the FY07 and FY08’s earnings (RMB 4 million and RMB 3.5 million respectively) but adjusted down FY09 earnings (RMB 8 million). CWH remains an appealing proxy to China’s booming auto sector. We maintain our BUY recommendation and Fair Value Estimate of S$1.36, based on the same relative valuation of 12x FY08 PER.
14 November 2007
3Q FY07 results review.
China Wheel Holdings (“CWH”) recorded a flat growth in 3Q FY07, as its factory utilization rate reached 98.8%. CWH’s net profit increased 7.9% YoY to RMB 25.9 million in 3Q FY07, on the back of sales growth of 11.4% to RMB 226.9 million. Gross profit increased 6.1% YoY to RMB 38.1 million. The slight dip in GP margin was due to 1) RMB appreciation which affected export
segment’s margin; 2) the Group’s provision of rebates for some promising distributors; 3) the adjustment of staff salaries. Expenses are in line with sales growth.
In 9M FY07, CWH’s net profit grew 49.3% to RMB 80.7 million and sales grew 22.1% to RMB 673 million. Receivables and Payables both increased with sales growth, and remain in healthy range. Gearing went up to 1.9 mainly due to the issue of convertible bonds in August. CWH also achieved positive cash flow of RMB 42 million in 9M FY07.
Growth driven by newly built Tianjin plant.
The phase I of Tianjin plant is on track, and will start commercial production in the beginning of 2008. CWH also formed a joint venture company Tianjin Diastal Wheel Manufacturing with Qinhuangdao Discastal (10% of JV) and Macau Ruizhi (10% of JV). Tianjin Dicastal will operate the 2 million wheels of the new Tianjin plant (Phase I only). As Qihuangdao Discastal is a qualified OEM supplier to the Toyota car plant in Tianjin and Macau Ruizhi is an established distributor of wheels to various Japanese car plants in Guangzhou and other regions, the management of CWH is very confident to capitalize on their partners’ expertise and accelerate the new plant’s utilization rate to 100% by 3Q FY08.
Maintain BUY and Fair Value Estimate of S$1.36.
We have revised our forecasts slightly by adjusting up the FY07 and FY08’s earnings (RMB 4 million and RMB 3.5 million respectively) but adjusted down FY09 earnings (RMB 8 million). CWH remains an appealing proxy to China’s booming auto sector. We maintain our BUY recommendation and Fair Value Estimate of S$1.36, based on the same relative valuation of 12x FY08 PER.
China Fishery
CHINA FISHERY EXTENDS STRONG GROWTH INTO FY2007 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_5B693D5275784AA64825739300289EF0/$file/CFGL-3Q07-PressRelease.pdf?openelement
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_5B693D5275784AA64825739300289EF0/$file/CFGL-3Q07-PressRelease.pdf?openelement
Transactions of My Portfolio and Latest Holding
Bought:
STX Pan Ocean
China Fishery
Sold:
Abterra
C&G Industrial
ChinaSunshine
Foreland
Pine Agritech
Latest Holdings:
Cash
China Fishery
China Energy
ChinaHongxing
ChinaWheel
ChinaXLX
Jiutian Chemical
Sihuan
STX Pan Ocean
CPF
Asia Enterprise
Midas
Raffles Education
STX Pan Ocean
China Fishery
Sold:
Abterra
C&G Industrial
ChinaSunshine
Foreland
Pine Agritech
Latest Holdings:
Cash
China Fishery
China Energy
ChinaHongxing
ChinaWheel
ChinaXLX
Jiutian Chemical
Sihuan
STX Pan Ocean
CPF
Asia Enterprise
Midas
Raffles Education
Transactions of Virtual Fund
Transactions for today:
Bought:
ChinaHongxing 50,000 @ $1.24 = $62,000
STX Pan Ocean 50,000 @ $3.68 = $184,000
China Fishery 20,000 @ $1.75 = $35,000
Raffles Education 15,000 @ $3.06 = $45,900
Sold:
Midas 20,000 @ $1.55 Cost = $1.41, Realised Profit = $2,800
Sum invested = $647,900
Cash holding = $850
Bought:
ChinaHongxing 50,000 @ $1.24 = $62,000
STX Pan Ocean 50,000 @ $3.68 = $184,000
China Fishery 20,000 @ $1.75 = $35,000
Raffles Education 15,000 @ $3.06 = $45,900
Sold:
Midas 20,000 @ $1.55 Cost = $1.41, Realised Profit = $2,800
Sum invested = $647,900
Cash holding = $850
Tuesday, 13 November 2007
Performance of Virtual Fund
Sum invested = $349,200
Cash holding = $296,749
Realised profit = $145,949 = 29.2%
Unrealised Loss = -$9,230 = -1.8%
Cash holding = $296,749
Realised profit = $145,949 = 29.2%
Unrealised Loss = -$9,230 = -1.8%
Monday, 12 November 2007
Performance of Virtual Fund
Sum invested = $349,200
Cash holding = $296,749
Realised profit = $145,949 = 29.2%
Unrealised Loss = -$14,890 = -3%
Cash holding = $296,749
Realised profit = $145,949 = 29.2%
Unrealised Loss = -$14,890 = -3%
Virtual Fund Transactions
Sold:
Golden Agri 50,000 @ $2.20 Cost $1.81 Realised Profit = $19,500
Jiutian Warrant 200,000 @ $0.18 Cost $0.15375 Realised Profit = $5,250
Pine Agritech 100,000 @ $0.41 Cost $0.515 Realised loss = -$10,500
Total Realised Profit = $14,250
Golden Agri 50,000 @ $2.20 Cost $1.81 Realised Profit = $19,500
Jiutian Warrant 200,000 @ $0.18 Cost $0.15375 Realised Profit = $5,250
Pine Agritech 100,000 @ $0.41 Cost $0.515 Realised loss = -$10,500
Total Realised Profit = $14,250
Sunday, 11 November 2007
Saturday, 10 November 2007
The Value/Growth Debate
Who dares wins: the value/growth debate
Numerous studies have shown that over long periods, value investing outperforms growth investing on average but value stocks today are starting to look overpriced
By TEH HOOI LING SENIOR CORRESPONDENT
Growth stocks have never been this cheap before. Value investors generally look for 'out-of-favour' companies. They look for discounts and seek stocks with relatively low price-earnings multiples.
Growth investors, on the other hand, look for fast earnings growth and are willing to pay a premium for it. So the stocks they buy into - in the hope of getting exposure to new products, innovation and a big increase in the share price - tend to trade at higher PE ratios.
However, numerous studies have shown that over long periods, value investing outperforms growth investing on average. The problem with growth investing is that forecasts for exciting companies tend to be over-optimistic. Too much of the future has been built into their share price. So any disappointment sends that price crashing.
But when it comes to value companies, investors tend to be too pessimistic. So even the slightest improvement boosts their share price.
As globalisation deepens, the boom and bust cycle will become less pronounced. And in this more stable environment, companies that are better able to plan and execute their growth strategies will be the big winners.
Mr Pang says that the way to do growth investing is to look for companies that can sustain their earnings growth faster than the market thinks. This will lead to stock price outperformance.
'What hurts growth investors the most is when they stay too long in the stock,' he says. 'As soon as our expectations become close to market consensus, we start to trim our position and get out of the growth trap.'
Small gap
According to him, with investors flocking to value stocks and eschewing growth stocks for the past few years, we have reached a point where 'there is very little value to wring out of value companies but there is a lot of value to be found in growth companies'.
The price gap between growth and value - based on various metrics such as price-to-sales, price-to-book, price-to-cash earnings and price-to-forecast earnings - has never been so small, he says.
And when one looks at the price-to-cash flow of large-cap growth and value stocks, there isn't much difference either. 'This doesn't make sense. You are getting high growth for free. This can't persist,' says Mr Pang.
'There's been compression of valuation. Growth has become cheaper and value more expensive,' says Mr Pang.
Timing tricky
As global growth slackens and more companies begin to disappoint, investors will value growth more as it becomes more scarce, he says. 'These cycles typically last two to three years, and during these periods there will be substantial outperformance.'
The tricky part is the timing: when will investors start to appreciate growth? If the global economy continues to steam along and there is plenty of growth to go around, growth companies may not see much of a premium rating.
Indeed, investors should not ignore growth stocks. Just having one and riding with it can do wonders for a portfolio. And you need not look far for a growth company. On the Singapore Exchange, $10,000 invested in Cosco five years ago is worth $1.1 million today.
The same amount invested in Raffles Education during its IPO in January 2002 is also worth about that sum today. It's worth more if you reinvested the dividends back into the stock. The same amount invested in Google just two years ago is now worth $73,000.
Of course, you have to be vigilant when it comes to growth investing. As Mr Pang says, the biggest risk is over-staying. But one stock like Cosco or Raffles Education will make up for the many that will disappoint.
The writer is a CFA charterholder. She can be reached at hooiling@sph.com.sg
Numerous studies have shown that over long periods, value investing outperforms growth investing on average but value stocks today are starting to look overpriced
By TEH HOOI LING SENIOR CORRESPONDENT
Growth stocks have never been this cheap before. Value investors generally look for 'out-of-favour' companies. They look for discounts and seek stocks with relatively low price-earnings multiples.
Growth investors, on the other hand, look for fast earnings growth and are willing to pay a premium for it. So the stocks they buy into - in the hope of getting exposure to new products, innovation and a big increase in the share price - tend to trade at higher PE ratios.
However, numerous studies have shown that over long periods, value investing outperforms growth investing on average. The problem with growth investing is that forecasts for exciting companies tend to be over-optimistic. Too much of the future has been built into their share price. So any disappointment sends that price crashing.
But when it comes to value companies, investors tend to be too pessimistic. So even the slightest improvement boosts their share price.
As globalisation deepens, the boom and bust cycle will become less pronounced. And in this more stable environment, companies that are better able to plan and execute their growth strategies will be the big winners.
Mr Pang says that the way to do growth investing is to look for companies that can sustain their earnings growth faster than the market thinks. This will lead to stock price outperformance.
'What hurts growth investors the most is when they stay too long in the stock,' he says. 'As soon as our expectations become close to market consensus, we start to trim our position and get out of the growth trap.'
Small gap
According to him, with investors flocking to value stocks and eschewing growth stocks for the past few years, we have reached a point where 'there is very little value to wring out of value companies but there is a lot of value to be found in growth companies'.
The price gap between growth and value - based on various metrics such as price-to-sales, price-to-book, price-to-cash earnings and price-to-forecast earnings - has never been so small, he says.
And when one looks at the price-to-cash flow of large-cap growth and value stocks, there isn't much difference either. 'This doesn't make sense. You are getting high growth for free. This can't persist,' says Mr Pang.
'There's been compression of valuation. Growth has become cheaper and value more expensive,' says Mr Pang.
Timing tricky
As global growth slackens and more companies begin to disappoint, investors will value growth more as it becomes more scarce, he says. 'These cycles typically last two to three years, and during these periods there will be substantial outperformance.'
The tricky part is the timing: when will investors start to appreciate growth? If the global economy continues to steam along and there is plenty of growth to go around, growth companies may not see much of a premium rating.
Indeed, investors should not ignore growth stocks. Just having one and riding with it can do wonders for a portfolio. And you need not look far for a growth company. On the Singapore Exchange, $10,000 invested in Cosco five years ago is worth $1.1 million today.
The same amount invested in Raffles Education during its IPO in January 2002 is also worth about that sum today. It's worth more if you reinvested the dividends back into the stock. The same amount invested in Google just two years ago is now worth $73,000.
Of course, you have to be vigilant when it comes to growth investing. As Mr Pang says, the biggest risk is over-staying. But one stock like Cosco or Raffles Education will make up for the many that will disappoint.
The writer is a CFA charterholder. She can be reached at hooiling@sph.com.sg
Friday, 9 November 2007
Performance of Virtual Fund
Sum invested = $521,950
Cash holding = $109,749
Realised profit = $131,699 = 26.34%
Unrealised Profit = $23,020 = 4.60%
Cash holding = $109,749
Realised profit = $131,699 = 26.34%
Unrealised Profit = $23,020 = 4.60%
Wednesday, 7 November 2007
Raffles Education Q1 Result
NEWS RELEASE FOR FY2008 Q1 RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT
RAFFLESEDUCATIONCORP CONTINUES GROWTH MOMENTUM
- Net Profit increased by 65% to S$15.9 million
- Revenue increased 45% to $39.1 million
- Earnings per share up 42% to 1.31 Singapore cents
- Declared Q1 dividend of 1.3 Singapore cents per share
RAFFLESEDUCATIONCORP CONTINUES GROWTH MOMENTUM
- Net Profit increased by 65% to S$15.9 million
- Revenue increased 45% to $39.1 million
- Earnings per share up 42% to 1.31 Singapore cents
- Declared Q1 dividend of 1.3 Singapore cents per share
Performance of Virtual Fund
Sum invested = $521,950
Cash holding = $109,749
Realised profit = $131,699 = 26.34%
Unrealised Profit = $26,060 = 5.21%
Cash holding = $109,749
Realised profit = $131,699 = 26.34%
Unrealised Profit = $26,060 = 5.21%
Tuesday, 6 November 2007
Sihuan
* Strong demand and improved margins lift Sihuan’s 3Q07 net profit by 122% to RMB43.5M.
*3Q07 sales growth of 83% driven mainly by cardiocerebral vascular (CV) drugs Kelinao and Chuanqing
* New CV product Anjieli continues to gain market share
* Expects pipeline of new drugs to come onstream in next 12 months to drive medium term growth
Singapore, 6 November 2007 – Mainboard-listed Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Ltd (四环医药控股集团有限公司or “Sihuan”), a leading manufacturer of cardiocerebral vascular (CV) drugs in the PRC, reported a sterling set of results for the quarter ended 30 September 2007 (3Q07) due to improved profitability and wider acceptance of its products, especially Kelinao, Chuanqing and Anjieli, a new drug introduced only in 2Q07.
These three CV drugs largely lifted Group 3Q07 net profit attributable (PATMI) by 122% year-on-year (yoy) to RMB43.5 million on 83% higher sales of RMB71.7 million. With 570 more distributors covering 3,520 hospitals, sales of Kelinao and Chuanqing doubled to RMB55.1 million in 3Q07. In 3Q06, 980 distributors helped Sihuan reach 2,800 hospitals in 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China. Sales of Anjieli rose 69% to RMB6.1 million in 3Q07 from 2Q07’s RMB3.6 million. “Although Kelinao remains a strong contributor to our bottomline, we are very encouraged by the strong take-up of Anjieli which was introduced only a few months ago,” said Dr Che Fengsheng (车冯升), Sihuan’s Executive Chairman and CEO.
*3Q07 sales growth of 83% driven mainly by cardiocerebral vascular (CV) drugs Kelinao and Chuanqing
* New CV product Anjieli continues to gain market share
* Expects pipeline of new drugs to come onstream in next 12 months to drive medium term growth
Singapore, 6 November 2007 – Mainboard-listed Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Ltd (四环医药控股集团有限公司or “Sihuan”), a leading manufacturer of cardiocerebral vascular (CV) drugs in the PRC, reported a sterling set of results for the quarter ended 30 September 2007 (3Q07) due to improved profitability and wider acceptance of its products, especially Kelinao, Chuanqing and Anjieli, a new drug introduced only in 2Q07.
These three CV drugs largely lifted Group 3Q07 net profit attributable (PATMI) by 122% year-on-year (yoy) to RMB43.5 million on 83% higher sales of RMB71.7 million. With 570 more distributors covering 3,520 hospitals, sales of Kelinao and Chuanqing doubled to RMB55.1 million in 3Q07. In 3Q06, 980 distributors helped Sihuan reach 2,800 hospitals in 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China. Sales of Anjieli rose 69% to RMB6.1 million in 3Q07 from 2Q07’s RMB3.6 million. “Although Kelinao remains a strong contributor to our bottomline, we are very encouraged by the strong take-up of Anjieli which was introduced only a few months ago,” said Dr Che Fengsheng (车冯升), Sihuan’s Executive Chairman and CEO.
Performance of Virtual Fund
Sum invested = $521,950
Cash holding = $109,749
Realised profit = $131,699 = 26.34%
Unrealised Profit = $27,790 = 5.56%
Cash holding = $109,749
Realised profit = $131,699 = 26.34%
Unrealised Profit = $27,790 = 5.56%
Monday, 5 November 2007
Own transactions and latest portfolio
Bought:
Foreland @ $0.53
ChinaSunshine @ $0.31
Latest Holdings:
Cash
C&G Industrial
China Energy
ChinaHongxing
ChinaSunShine
ChinaWheel
ChinaXLX
Foreland
Jiutian Chemical
Pine Agritech
Sihuan
CPF
Asia Enterprise
Midas
Raffles Education
The general weakness in the market today has triggered me to pick up some counters which I feel are relatively cheap. I disposed of Foreland at S$0.55 some weeks ago and I bought it back at a cheaper price today.
I think there are enough counters in my portfolio at the moment. The next stage I look to increase my holdings in individual counters to strengthen the overall investment value and to capitalise on any price weakness.
Some ask why i like China companies so much that my portfolio consist of 100% S-shares (Cash portion). Well, China has become a major force in the financial world. With the listing of PertoChina today, China has got 5 of the 10 biggest companies in the world! I believe its a matter of time that China would replace US as the largest financial market. That should bode well for people living in this part of the world. As I type, how many of you are staying up to look at US for market direction? How I wish such sleepless nites would be over soon.
I have some analyst friends who never like a thing "China". They don't look like AngMoh but they will shun anything Chinese. Surprisingly they do speak good Mandarin. They say they would never want to travel to China as the toilets are not up to their hygiene standards. They don't take a second look at Chinese women as they do not have good image here....
What can I say? We all are entitled to our own opinions and have our preferences. They do not know what they are missing. Look at Cosco, it has been the best STI stock this year. Many S-shares in my portfolio have proven themselves. Jiutian, ChinaHongxing and Pine have all increased their values by more than 5 times since listing in a relatively short period of time.
Speaking of corporate governance, I think there are more troubled local companies than the Chinese counterparts. The biz practice in China has always been seen in a negative way. I firmly believe that many of these Chinese companies have performed even better in terms of governance rankings vis-a-vis local firms. Many of their CFO and CEO have studied MBA and they are maybe even more advanced in their managerial skills than we ever realise. Even the shrewdest Warren Buffet once invested in PetroChina but too bad he didnt have the nerves to hold on to it. Otherwise, his wealth could have increased very significantly with the strong debut today.
I know whatever I say I can never change some people's mindsets. Well, at the end of the day, what matters really is whether you made money from your investment. There is no one winning formula in share investment. Had you chosen to buy the biggest losers of last year at the beginning of the year, you would have been sitting on profit of >400% so far. The portfolio may not look sexy but what the heck, who cares, as long as you made money!
Foreland @ $0.53
ChinaSunshine @ $0.31
Latest Holdings:
Cash
C&G Industrial
China Energy
ChinaHongxing
ChinaSunShine
ChinaWheel
ChinaXLX
Foreland
Jiutian Chemical
Pine Agritech
Sihuan
CPF
Asia Enterprise
Midas
Raffles Education
The general weakness in the market today has triggered me to pick up some counters which I feel are relatively cheap. I disposed of Foreland at S$0.55 some weeks ago and I bought it back at a cheaper price today.
I think there are enough counters in my portfolio at the moment. The next stage I look to increase my holdings in individual counters to strengthen the overall investment value and to capitalise on any price weakness.
Some ask why i like China companies so much that my portfolio consist of 100% S-shares (Cash portion). Well, China has become a major force in the financial world. With the listing of PertoChina today, China has got 5 of the 10 biggest companies in the world! I believe its a matter of time that China would replace US as the largest financial market. That should bode well for people living in this part of the world. As I type, how many of you are staying up to look at US for market direction? How I wish such sleepless nites would be over soon.
I have some analyst friends who never like a thing "China". They don't look like AngMoh but they will shun anything Chinese. Surprisingly they do speak good Mandarin. They say they would never want to travel to China as the toilets are not up to their hygiene standards. They don't take a second look at Chinese women as they do not have good image here....
What can I say? We all are entitled to our own opinions and have our preferences. They do not know what they are missing. Look at Cosco, it has been the best STI stock this year. Many S-shares in my portfolio have proven themselves. Jiutian, ChinaHongxing and Pine have all increased their values by more than 5 times since listing in a relatively short period of time.
Speaking of corporate governance, I think there are more troubled local companies than the Chinese counterparts. The biz practice in China has always been seen in a negative way. I firmly believe that many of these Chinese companies have performed even better in terms of governance rankings vis-a-vis local firms. Many of their CFO and CEO have studied MBA and they are maybe even more advanced in their managerial skills than we ever realise. Even the shrewdest Warren Buffet once invested in PetroChina but too bad he didnt have the nerves to hold on to it. Otherwise, his wealth could have increased very significantly with the strong debut today.
I know whatever I say I can never change some people's mindsets. Well, at the end of the day, what matters really is whether you made money from your investment. There is no one winning formula in share investment. Had you chosen to buy the biggest losers of last year at the beginning of the year, you would have been sitting on profit of >400% so far. The portfolio may not look sexy but what the heck, who cares, as long as you made money!
China XLX
Morgan Stanley has an "overweight" rating on China XLX, with a target of 1.61 dollars. "We see China XLX among the best cost managers in the Chinese coal-based fertilizer (urea) industry, driven by large scale, superior technology upgrade capabilities, and strategic location to both raw materials and fertilizer demand," it said. http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/776871/
China Energy
China Energy achieves record net profit of RMB64.7 million in 3Q2007 ·
Net profit rose 26% while revenue improved 37%, on the back of higher Dimethyl Ether (“DME”) sales · Gross margin improved from 36.3% in 3Q2006 to 37.7%in 3Q2007 · New capacity expansion at end of year will increase existing production capacity by 50% Singapore.
05 November 2007 - China Energy Limited , China’s largest producer of Dimethyl Ether (“DME”) – an environmentally-friendly and cost efficient alternative fuel, achieved a record net profit of RMB64.7 million in 3Q2007. This is a 26% increase as compared to the net profit in 3Q2006.
Revenue for 3Q2007 rose 37% to RMB232 million, mainly due to the higher DME sales achieved. Sales volume for DME increased from 22,900 metric tons in 3Q2006 to 50,300 metric tons in 3Q2007, on the back of new capacity recently added in 3Q2007. Overall, gross margin also improved from 36.3% in 3Q2006 to 37.7% in 3Q2007.
Going forward, the Group expects the demand for Dimethyl Ether (DME) to remain strong. The Group is also in the midst of setting up new DME production facilities at Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Province, China. This additional 300,000 metric tons per annum (“mtpa”) of new capacity is expected to complete by the end of this year. This will increase the existing DME production capacity by 50%, bringing the total DME capacity to 900,000 mtpa by the end of 2007.
Net profit rose 26% while revenue improved 37%, on the back of higher Dimethyl Ether (“DME”) sales · Gross margin improved from 36.3% in 3Q2006 to 37.7%in 3Q2007 · New capacity expansion at end of year will increase existing production capacity by 50% Singapore.
05 November 2007 - China Energy Limited , China’s largest producer of Dimethyl Ether (“DME”) – an environmentally-friendly and cost efficient alternative fuel, achieved a record net profit of RMB64.7 million in 3Q2007. This is a 26% increase as compared to the net profit in 3Q2006.
Revenue for 3Q2007 rose 37% to RMB232 million, mainly due to the higher DME sales achieved. Sales volume for DME increased from 22,900 metric tons in 3Q2006 to 50,300 metric tons in 3Q2007, on the back of new capacity recently added in 3Q2007. Overall, gross margin also improved from 36.3% in 3Q2006 to 37.7% in 3Q2007.
Going forward, the Group expects the demand for Dimethyl Ether (DME) to remain strong. The Group is also in the midst of setting up new DME production facilities at Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Province, China. This additional 300,000 metric tons per annum (“mtpa”) of new capacity is expected to complete by the end of this year. This will increase the existing DME production capacity by 50%, bringing the total DME capacity to 900,000 mtpa by the end of 2007.
PetroChina the largest company in the world by market capitalisation!
PetroChina's Value Tops $1 Trillion, Surpassing Exxon
By Ying Lou
Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- PetroChina Co. almost tripled on its first day of trading in Shanghai, becoming the world's first company to be valued at $1 trillion, larger than the entire Russian stock market.
PetroChina shares rose to 43.96 yuan from the sale price of 16.7 yuan, giving the state-owned oil producer a greater market value than Exxon Mobil Corp. and General Electric Co. combined.
The rally makes PetroChina shares four times more expensive than those of Exxon, even though China's biggest oil producer has a quarter of the revenue. China's stock market was valued at less than $1.1 trillion before tripling this year and giving the communist nation five of the world's 10 biggest companies.
The share sale, the world's biggest this year, surpassed the 66.6 billion yuan raised by China Shenhua Energy Co. in September. PetroChina raised 66.8 billion yuan selling 4 billion shares last week as investors applied for more than 3.3 trillion yuan of stock, almost 50 times the amount PetroChina sold.
The other Chinese companies that rank among the world's 10 largest by market value are China Petroleum, known as Sinopec, China Mobile Ltd., Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp.
By Ying Lou
Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- PetroChina Co. almost tripled on its first day of trading in Shanghai, becoming the world's first company to be valued at $1 trillion, larger than the entire Russian stock market.
PetroChina shares rose to 43.96 yuan from the sale price of 16.7 yuan, giving the state-owned oil producer a greater market value than Exxon Mobil Corp. and General Electric Co. combined.
The rally makes PetroChina shares four times more expensive than those of Exxon, even though China's biggest oil producer has a quarter of the revenue. China's stock market was valued at less than $1.1 trillion before tripling this year and giving the communist nation five of the world's 10 biggest companies.
The share sale, the world's biggest this year, surpassed the 66.6 billion yuan raised by China Shenhua Energy Co. in September. PetroChina raised 66.8 billion yuan selling 4 billion shares last week as investors applied for more than 3.3 trillion yuan of stock, almost 50 times the amount PetroChina sold.
The other Chinese companies that rank among the world's 10 largest by market value are China Petroleum, known as Sinopec, China Mobile Ltd., Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp.
Performance of Virtual Fund on this day ~ PetroChina made its debut
Sum invested = $521,950
Cash holding = $109,749
Realised profit = $131,699 = 26.34%
Unrealised Profit = $11,390 = 2.28%
Cash holding = $109,749
Realised profit = $131,699 = 26.34%
Unrealised Profit = $11,390 = 2.28%
Friday, 2 November 2007
Performance of Virtual Fund
Sum invested = $521,950
Cash holding = $109,749
Realised profit = $131,699 = 26.34%
Unrealised Profit = $34,670 = 6.93%
Not bad, the portfolio managed to register slight gain even the broader market was down by 88 points thanks to the last minutes recovery of some S shares.
Cash holding = $109,749
Realised profit = $131,699 = 26.34%
Unrealised Profit = $34,670 = 6.93%
Not bad, the portfolio managed to register slight gain even the broader market was down by 88 points thanks to the last minutes recovery of some S shares.
Thursday, 1 November 2007
Performance of Virtual Fund
Sum invested = $521,950
Cash holding = $109,749
Realised profit = $131,699 = 26.34%
Unrealised Profit = $34,220 = 6.84%
Cash holding = $109,749
Realised profit = $131,699 = 26.34%
Unrealised Profit = $34,220 = 6.84%
Transactions for Virtual Fund
Transactions:
Sold:
Federal 50,000 @ $0.84, Cost $0.78, Realised Profit = $3,000
ChinaXLXmBLeCW80303 500,000 @ $0.10, Cost $0.095, Realised Profit = $2,500
YangzijiangBNPeCW80115 200,000 @ $0.105, Cost $0.125, Realised Loss = -$4,000
C & G Industrial 50,000 @ $0.625, Cost $0.59, Realised Profit = $1,750
ChinaMilk 48,000 @ $1.27, Cost $1.43, Realised Loss = -$7,680
Net Realised Loss = -$4,430
Sale Proceeds = $205,210
Bought:
Courage Marine 100,000 @ $0.475 = $47,500
Golden Agriculture 50,000 @ $1.81 = $90,500
KS Energy 20,000 @ $3.80 = $76,000
Total investment bought = $214,000
Sum invested = $521,950
Cash holding = $109,749
Sold:
Federal 50,000 @ $0.84, Cost $0.78, Realised Profit = $3,000
ChinaXLXmBLeCW80303 500,000 @ $0.10, Cost $0.095, Realised Profit = $2,500
YangzijiangBNPeCW80115 200,000 @ $0.105, Cost $0.125, Realised Loss = -$4,000
C & G Industrial 50,000 @ $0.625, Cost $0.59, Realised Profit = $1,750
ChinaMilk 48,000 @ $1.27, Cost $1.43, Realised Loss = -$7,680
Net Realised Loss = -$4,430
Sale Proceeds = $205,210
Bought:
Courage Marine 100,000 @ $0.475 = $47,500
Golden Agriculture 50,000 @ $1.81 = $90,500
KS Energy 20,000 @ $3.80 = $76,000
Total investment bought = $214,000
Sum invested = $521,950
Cash holding = $109,749
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