Thursday, 20 September 2007

Virtual Fund Transactions

Bought:

100,000 ChinaSports @$1.35 = $135,000
500,000 CapitalandDBeCW80121 @$0.17 = $85,000
500,000 CoscoCorpBNPeCW080204 @$0.095 = $47,500

Sum invested = $267,500
Cash holding = $278,429
Realised profit to-date = $45,929 = 9.18%

Own Portfolio

Transactions for today:

Sold Adv SCT Warrant
Sold ChinaWheel

Bought ChinaSports

Latest Holdings:

Cash
ChinaSports
EZRA
Sihuan
Foreland
Hongwei
Pine
Jiutian

CPF
Asia Ent.
Midas
Raffles Edu

Latest Football News

Thu, 20th Sep 2007

Chelsea Football Club and José Mourinho have agreed to part company today (Thursday) by mutual consent.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_sports/view/300933/1/.html

Tuesday, 18 September 2007

Happy Birthday to Me


No transactions to report for the day. I will have an early night cos I need to catch Liverpool match tomorrow at 2.30am. The new season of Champion League begins tonight. For those who stay up for the Fed decision, please take care. My personal view is that, whatever the outcome, the market is bound to fall eventually. Lets wait and see...

Monday, 17 September 2007

Today's Virtual Fund Transactions:

Disposed of all Put Warrants:
STI3500BNPePW070927: 500,000 @$0.13 Profit = $17,500
HSI21800BNPePW070927: 1,000,000 @$0.045 Profit = $5,000
DBS DBePW071001: 500,000 @$0.045, No Gain No Loss

Total Realised Profit to-date= $45,929 =9.18%
Sum invested = $0
Latest Cash Holding = $545,929

The decision to dispose of the entire equity porfolio proved timely. The STI was down by 60 points and therefore the put warrant made the most.

Tomorrow, market should be firmer ahead of the FOMC meeting. I have decided to clear all my position as the market could swing one way or another depending what Uncle Ben has to say.

Stay tuned for my next move.

Ezra's Subsidiary Contracts with Karmsund for Large Deep-Water Multi-Functional Support Vessel

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_7906A3D6D438E56C4825735900345B49/$file/DraftEzraPR17Sep07.pdf?openelement

Saturday, 15 September 2007

Contradicting Singaporeans

Funny truth....

1. Nite - Sleep with air-con; Day - Bathe with heater on.
2. Day - Cannot Wake up; Nite - Cannot Sleep.
3. Translation is needed between Singaporean Chinese and Mainland Chinese.
4. Smell Of rubbish besides letterboxes; Rubbish inside Letterbox.
5. Spore Chinese use different languages other then Chinese to communicate.
6. Sporean never likes to vote, but like to complain.
7. There are quite a number of rich/poor in spore - They have Car, Credit Card, CPF but no Cash and are liable to lots of loans
8. Education - Teach Less Learn More.
9. There are quite a few high-tech barbaric Singaporeans -they know how to use state-of-the art equipment, 3g mobile phone and powerful computers but they don’t know how to use a simple dustbin or a toilet.
10. Half Sporeans rushed to buy Hello kitty, but the other half busy killing stray cats.
11. Chewing Gum - Can Chew, Cannot buy?? (Restricted to buying).
12. Cigarettes - Convenient to buy; not convenient to smoke.
13. Private Cars - Cheaper and Cheaper to buy, harder and harder to Maintain.
14. Public Bus - Half the Crowd squeeze in front section of the Bus, Second section is for Carrying Ghost.

Friday, 14 September 2007

Disposed of Entire Virtual Share Fund and bought put warrants ahead of volatile week

3 Key events in US next week could make or break the recovery of global share markets:

(1) Fed meeting on 18 Sep - The billion dollars question: Will Fed cut interest rate? How much? What to expect next?

(2) Major Bank Earnings - Morgan Stanley to report on Wed and Goldman Sachs and Bear Sterns on Thurs.

(3) Expiring of Option and Futures Contracts (This is very "chim" to explain). The impact will probably not as big as the other 2.

The above factors could swing the global market in a big way. The rate cut has been priced in the recent market recovery. If Uncle Ben decides to do otherwise, investors will be done for. Bank earnings have also been widely estimated. What remains is negative surprises.

Due to all these uncertainties, I decided to unload my entire virtual share portfolio. I bought some put warrants in anticipation of a selldown.

Total realised profit = $23,429 = 4.69%

Warrants bought:
STI3500BNPePW070927: 500,000 @$0.095 = $47,500
HSI21800BNPePW070927: 1,000,000 @$0.04 = $40,000
DBS DBePW071001: 500,000 @$0.045=$22,500
Sum invested = $110,000
Cash Holding = $413,429

Thursday, 13 September 2007

Noble Group - The Best Performing Blue Chip in SGX

For the second straight year, Noble Group has been named to the Forbes Fabulous 50, Forbes third annual compilation of Asia's best public companies.

To assemble the list, Forbes studied long-term profitability, sales and earnings growth, stock price appreciation and projected earnings for every company in the region with revenues or market capitalisation reaching $5 billion and above.

Noble is joined by new entrants Neptune Orient Lines and SembCorp Industries as the only three companies to appear listed on the Singapore Exchange. The Fabulous 50 List appears in the Sept 17 issue of Forbes Asia.

Indeed, Noble's share price has appreciated more than 800% if you had held the share since its IPO in 1997. It is still the best performing share within its market capitalisation category. During this period, Singtel appreciated a mere 20%, Capitaland 70% and even the bigger DBS +200%.

Wednesday, 12 September 2007

Performance of Virtual Fund

Total sum invested $500,221
Cash Holding $579
Realised Gains = $800
Unrealised Gains = $20,429 = 4.09%

Transaction of Virtual Portfolio

Sold 1,000 Jiutian at 2.88

Sum invested $500,221
Cash Holding $579

Tuesday, 11 September 2007

Why does CFO resign?

Jiutian announces resignation of its Chief Financial Officer:
http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/ef3ba6cb188613ea482571b2003641d3/9343cc1eb0229f384825735200344249?OpenDocument

What I have to say below is not specifically directed to this particular announcement but my personal opinion of how people react to the announcement of this nature.

Whenever CFO or any key personnel in any organisations resigns, it always raises a few eyebrows. You need not look far. Recently there were rumours that Labroy Marine's Technical Director was leaving and the share price plummeted more than 10% on the day.

There are 2 school of thoughts to this kind of announcement:

1. Positive: The CFO leaves on his own accord to pursue his own interests (usually quoted as such)
2. Negative: The CFO is "forced" to resign because he knows something that the profession requires him to quit.

The first one is more straight forward. People do resign because they need to take a break to pursue other interests or careers. The current position maybe too stressful or he is not well rewarded. Other undisclosed reasons include the capability of the CFO to discharge the duties required of him. Maybe he refuses to travel or cannot cope with different culture and languages in a foreign country. Whatever it might be, this is good for shareholders because we all do not want a CFO who cant do the job and that it would only be bad for the company to keep him.

The second one is more tricky. It can sometime send the company's share price tumbling because the public perceives the management is up to no good and the CFO is compelled to leave. No kidding. We accountants are taught to leave a job, however well paid a job maybe, if we discover something or when we find ourselves in a situation where our professional ethics might be compromised.

In this modern world, CFO is the right-hand man of the CEO. Usually he is the first to know if anything is not proper. Because of the privileges we accountants enjoy, we also carry the same weight of responsibilities as those of a company director. Its not hard to find cases where CFOs or Finance Directors of commercial and charitable organisations convicted on criminal charges together with the number one man at the helm.

Maybe SGX should consider making the CFO to disclose the "real" reason for leaving the company, just like what is going to be required by directors soon. That would make the announcement more transparent and it could minimise the damage that it might cause to the company.

China and India are reported to be short of qualified accountants. Indeed, qualified accountants with technical and good soft skills are hard to come by. Good accountants are not just good at interpreting accounting standards or reading financial statements. What is equally important is his ability to understand the business operations and be able to deal and connect to different group of people and personnel in the organisations. This is what I call the soft skills.

Accountants are generally not good at expressing themselves, myself included. I have been to AGMs and I have seen how accountants are grilled by shareholders and the CEO or directors have to shield him from further embarrassment due to the lack of understanding of the business the company is in or the general knowledge of the industry.

As an accountant, I make no excuse for myself. Ever since I quit my audit profession to join the commercial world, i have to constantly remind myself to learn the business skills as much as keeping myself abreast with the latest corporate developments. I always force myself to understand the various aspects of the business operations. My boss always get me involved in key decision making as he feels that I am in the best position to evaluate any course of action. At the end of the day, the management decision must take into account dollars and sense because that's how the management is being measured by shareholders.

For those accountant wannabe, please ensure you acquire the relevant technical skills, after that the soft skills will get you far. Good luck!

Performance of virtual fund on 6th Anniversary of 9-11

Unrealised Gains = $13,760
Realised Gains = $800
Total Gains to-date= $14,560 = 2.91%

On this day 6 years ago, I lost around $20,000 and it took me 3 months to recover the amount.
It was a bad day for the global financial markets but it was a good personal experience learnt.

Ezra to sell 40% of EOC before Oslo Listing

Ezra to sell 40% of unit headed for Oslo mainboard listing MARINE group Ezra Holdings is selling a 40 per cent stake in EOC Ltd for up to 1.068 billion Norwegian kroner ($282 million), a move that will make its production and construction unit the first Singapore company to list on the mainboard of the Oslo Stock Exchange. Mr Lee: EOC's listing in Oslo will also enable the company to tap new sources of funding Ezra, which owns 88 per cent of EOC, said yesterday that it is selling up to about 44.5 million EOC shares through private placement to institutional and professional investors at an indicative price range of 22-24 Norwegian kroner per share. EOC currently trades on the over-the-counter (OTC) of the Oslo exchange. This is expected to raise gross proceeds of S$258-282 million and pare Ezra's stake in EOC to 48 per cent. The actual pricing will be determined through a book-building process by Pareto Securities ASA that will run from Sept 10 to 19. 'The sale is in line with our asset-light strategy,' Ezra's managing director Lionel Lee said. 'EOC's separate mainboard listing in Oslo will also enable the company to tap new and diversified sources of funding to accelerate its growth in line with the buoyant demand for offshore construction and production support vessels.' Mr Lee noted that the placement of EOC shares to investors in Norway and internationally will ensure a sound investor support. EOC's European listing is also strategic for the group as it will enhance its overall position in the North Sea, South America and West Africa markets. One of the conditions for the Oslo mainboard listing is that EOC must have a free float of at least 25 per cent of the shares admitted to listing. Ezra said members of EOC's board and management will be pre-allocated a maximum of 4.5 million shares. 'The placement will facilitate EOC's upgrade to the mainboard and will enable the group to raise its profile among investors as a high-growth company in the construction and FPSO (floating production storage and offloading) segment of the offshore oil and gas industry,' said EOC's managing director KK Lim. EOC's mainboard status wiill allow it to tap on a wider range of funding possibilities to finance its future growth plans as it carves out a niche in the medium to deepwater projects, he added. EOC, which provides offshore fabrication, commissioning and transportation services to the oil and gas industry, currently manages two heavy lift accommodation crane barges and recently took delivery of a pipe-lay and accommodation vessel called the Lewek Champion. Ezra manages 25 vessels comprising anchor handling tug supply vessels (AHTS), anchor handling tugs (AHTs), crewboats, barges and a pipelaying vessel.

Courtesy of CNA Forumer

Monday, 10 September 2007

Transactions for Virtual Portfolio 10/09/07

Disposal of shares on 10 September 2007:


Acquisitions on 10 September 2007:




Cash holding = $0.
Total Unrealised Gains = $13,150
Realised Gains = $800
Total Gains = $13,950 = 2.63%

Sunday, 9 September 2007

Sharing with you the following posts in one of the share forums:

People always worry

On weekend, they worry about monday.
On monday, they worry about tuesday..
On tuesday, they worry about wedsnesday..

2 Years ago, they worried about inflation.
Year ago, they worried about oil price.
Today they worry about subprime and credit.
tomorrow, they are going to worry abt something... but Market goes on.

Even filthy rich also has worry. Buffet worries he can get a good successor. Others worry they dont have a son to take over their wealth. The bears worry that they will be caged for their biles.

Story of " 杞人忧天“ 。。。 - long long ago in china, a person from qi keep worry that the sky will fall.

1997 : - Hongkong returned back to china mainland, people say hongkong going to finish. Now ?
1999 : - lots of dooms day tellers say 1999 end of the world, bible predicted it. Now?
2001 : - US WTC kena attacked, many say world war III coming , now ?

Buying a blender

My wife bought a multi function blender at a departmental store this afternoon. The blender is made in Japan. The usual price is $120 but today special promotion at only $69 with free filter.

The promoter was pretty good with the demo and was surrounded by a big group of housewives and some uncles like myself. She diligently tried out one method after another and she had about 10 different types of food items to do the demo.

I was convinced by the functionality of the machine so I asked my wife to get one. I feel that the price was cheap as I had seen it selling at more than $100 before. I thought many would follow suit and buy. To my surprise, out of the group of about 30 onlookers, only my wife bought it.

Interestingly, after my wife stepped aside to check the machine, 3 women came after her and asked her questions like: what is the price? is it really useful? is it really selling at bargain? does it really come with free gift etc?

I was thinking at one side. We were all there listening and witnessed the demo for 20 mins. Surely we heard and saw the same thing. Why these people want to get 2nd opinion? Maybe it has to do with the kiasu and kiasi mentality in general.

I recall my experience of recommending some shares to one of my ex colleagues. This lady in her 50s I suppose was quite loaded. I recommended some good companies like Midas and Raffles Education to her. At that time Midas was trading at below $0.30 and I myself bought more than 100 lots. No matter how hard I tried to convince her, she would not bite. She always had excuses such as China businesses are risky bla bla bla .. and I put that to her kiasi attitude.

More than 1 year gone by and Midas shot to $2 and Raffles Edu also had doubled in price. I met her on the street one day. She regretted not to heed my advice at that time or she would have made good money investing in Midas and Raffles Edu.

Recently I happened to talk to her on the phone. She asked me whether can buy Midas and Raffles Edu as both had corrected significantly prior to the recent market melt down as they were hit hard by untrue articles and rumuors.

So I tried to convince her to pick up some if she can afford to hold for medium term. She was sceptical and did not buy any at first. Last week she phoned me to say that she had finally picked up some Midas. However at that time, Midas had been hitting recent high, so much higher than the price I asked her to buy at around $1.23. She told me she did not want to regret again as she saw the price jumped from $1.20 to $1.45.

Go back to the blender story. I am sure some aunties will go back to check the price tomorrow to confirm whether it was really selling at 40% discount. And I am sure they would be kicking themselves and say "I should have bought it yesterday as it was so much cheaper"! Why cant people be more simple minded at times and take things at their face value. In Singapore, if you sell things too cheaply, people think it must be a junk.

It happens everywhere and everytime. Thats just human nature: Fear and Greed. As long as humans live, this will not die. Tomorrow market should trend downwards again and many people would panic and sell low again. Before they recovered from their shock, big boys would come and push up the prices and they would then start to chase again by paying even more for the shares as they do not want to miss the boat.

Now that Mr Chew has been accumulating Midas at the cheap, maybe its time we follow the big boys and see what it brings. Good luck!

Friday, 7 September 2007

Virtual Portfolio Performance Day 2

Total unrealised gains = $19,400 or 3.88%.

Foreland continues to climb by 11.1% from $0.45 to $0.50. It has recovered more than 20% in just 2 days. This gem was badly sold down due to its thin volume. There are many high profile investors behind this company and they can easily buy up the price in no time. As the demand for functional fabrics set to rise in tandem with explosive consumer spending in China, this counter can offer huge upside potential in time to come.

Jiutian has gained $3,600 being the top gainer in absolute value. It should continue to charge ahead towards $4 with the share split and bonus warrants in the pipeline. The warrant exercise price is set at $0.80. That implies that the mother share will have to be worth that value after split for the exercise to be meaningful. The future growth prospects seem so promising with 5 times increase in production capacity expected and it set to become one of the largest DMF producers in the world.

Own transactions 7 Sep 2007

Bought:

5,000 Sihuan @ $0.76
10,000 ChinaWheel @$0.94

Why buy Sihuan?

I have been impressed by the high ROE and profitability of this company. Its hospital distribution network is set to double in the next few years. The key drug Kelinao has been selling like hot cake. It takes a lot of patience to realise its full valuation. There are few high profile investors who got the placement shares at the IPO.


Why buy ChinaWheel?

The production capacity may triple by 2010 from the current 3.6m wheels p.a. making it one of the largest producer of aluminium alloy wheels in China. It gives investors a direct exposure to the fast growing auto sector. Current valuation is still cheap with forward PE of less than 10.

Thursday, 6 September 2007

Virtual Portfolio Performance After Day 1

After 1st day of launching, the overall portfolio registered unrealised gains of $10,150 or 2.03% thanks to the bargain hunting in the SGX.

Best Performer: Foreland +12.5%
Worst Performer: ChinaMilk -2.5%